Polymarket 美国平台名义交易量突破 7.5 亿美元，交易笔数超 500 万笔

Urea Surges 34% as Iran Conflict Ripples Through Commodities, Bitcoin

The Iran conflict disrupts global commodity supply, notably urea fertilizer, with prices surging 34% to $601/ton as of March 16. Myriad's prediction market monitors urea's potential rise above $610 by March 25, reflecting broader energy market volatility.

BETS OFF Act Introduced by US Democrats Would Prohibit War Betting Markets

The proposed legislation aims to regulate prediction markets by prohibiting trading on non-economic government actions and sensitive events. It addresses ethical concerns and seeks to clarify regulatory boundaries amid rising scrutiny and ongoing controversies.

New wallet bets $100,000 on Sporting CP to beat Boavista, with a current win rate of 66%

Gate News reports that on March 17, on-chain data monitoring showed that a newly created wallet address wagered $100,000 betting on Sporting Portugal to defeat Bodø/Glimt, with Sporting Portugal currently having a 66% chance of winning. This match is the second leg of the 2025-26 UEFA Champions League Round of 16, with Sporting Portugal hosting the season's biggest dark horse, Bodø/Glimt, at home. In the first leg, Bodø/Glimt won decisively 3-0, and Sporting Portugal must win by at least 3 goals to overturn the deficit and advance, while Bodø/Glimt only needs to remain unbeaten to make history by reaching the Champions League quarter-finals for the first time.

Argentina Blocks Polymarket as Crackdown on Prediction Markets Expands

Argentina has banned the betting platform Polymarket due to its unlicensed gambling activities and concerns about minors' access. This move follows similar actions in Colombia and reflects a broader trend of regulatory enforcement in Latin America and beyond.

US Democratic Lawmakers Propose Ban on Officials Using Inside Information to Trade Prediction Markets

Gate News: On March 17, U.S. Senator Chris Murphy and Representative Greg Casar introduced a new bill called the BETS OFF Act, which proposes to prohibit government officials from engaging in prediction market betting while possessing inside information. The bill specifically targets suspected insider trading in events related to U.S. actions in Venezuela, Iran, and other locations, aiming to restrict officials from profiting from sensitive policy and military information.

Polymarket Data: Market Betting on 30% Probability of One Federal Reserve Rate Cut This Year

Gate News: On March 17, Polymarket prediction market data shows that the market odds for the Federal Reserve cutting rates 1 time by 25 basis points this year stand at 30%, with a 23% probability of no rate cuts, and a 23% probability of 2 rate cuts totaling 50 basis points. The prediction market has currently exceeded $10.25 million in trading volume.