Prediction Market

Gate News reports that on March 18, Polymarket prediction market data shows that the probability of Federal Reserve Chair Powell mentioning "Inflation" more than 40 times during the March press conference (at 2:30 AM) is currently at 80%. Additionally, the probability of mentioning "Gold/Oil" is 93%; the probability of mentioning "Iran" is 62%.

The proposed legislation aims to regulate prediction markets by prohibiting trading on non-economic government actions and sensitive events. It addresses ethical concerns and seeks to clarify regulatory boundaries amid rising scrutiny and ongoing controversies.

Argentina has banned the betting platform Polymarket due to its unlicensed gambling activities and concerns about minors' access. This move follows similar actions in Colombia and reflects a broader trend of regulatory enforcement in Latin America and beyond.

On March 18, Polymarket launched a new market on whether Neymar will participate in the 2026 World Cup, with the current probability of "yes" at 37%. Neymar's poor performance due to injuries and his exclusion from the friendly match roster on March 16 have raised concerns about his physical condition. Ancelotti stated that if Neymar is 100% healthy, he can be selected for the World Cup.

Prediction market platform Polymarket will open a themed bar called "The Situation Room" in Washington, D.C. this Friday, focusing on real-time information monitoring rather than traditional sports events. The bar will be equipped with Bloomberg terminals, flight radar, and other devices to attract information enthusiasts. The address has not yet been disclosed, sparking considerable discussion.

Gate News reports that on March 18, Polymarket announced the opening of the world's first prediction bar dedicated to "situational monitoring." The bar will feature real-time X information streams, flight radar, Bloomberg terminals, and Polymarket monitoring screens, all focused on delivering real-time news, flight information, market data, and prediction market insights.

Polymarket announced on March 18 the acquisition of startup Brahma to optimize user experience and enhance DeFi liquidity. Brahma focuses on providing DeFi infrastructure and has processed over $1 billion in transactions. The acquisition will conclude Brahma's projects with existing partners and aims to streamline wallet and asset operations.

Gate News reported that on March 18, Trust Wallet has integrated the prediction market protocol Predict.fun into its "Predictions" tab within its application. Users can trade outcomes of events across multiple categories including sports, politics, and cryptocurrencies on BNB Chain using USDT without downloading a new app.

Gate News report: On March 18, according to Iranian media reports, Iran will retaliate against attacks on its energy infrastructure by striking enemy targets previously considered safe. Additionally, Iran's Revolutionary Guards are about to issue a warning to Gulf countries. On prediction market Polymarket, a new market titled "When will Iran take military action against a Gulf country?" shows probabilities of 88% for today (March 18), 88% for March 19, and 87% for March 20.

On Polymarket prediction event, an account bet $54,000 on BLG to defeat G2, with an opening price of 82¢. This is LOL's first international event in 2026, with BLG defeating BFX 3:2 in the first round and G2 defeating TSW 3:0. The match will take place at 9 PM tonight.

US Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chair Selig responded to Arizona's criminal charges against Kalshi, characterizing the matter as a jurisdictional dispute and stating that the charges are improper. Attorney General Mayes accused Kalshi of offering illegal gambling services, emphasizing that the company must comply with the law. The CFTC will closely monitor developments in the case.

U.S. lawmakers are introducing the BETS OFF Act to regulate prediction markets, banning bets on sensitive events like wars and terrorist actions due to ethical concerns. The bill aims to prevent harmful behavior and protect public interest, amid rising scrutiny of platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket.

Affected by Middle East conflicts, Polymarket shows a 63% probability that WTI crude oil will break through $100/barrel by March 31, up 43 percentage points from the previous 24 hours. The probabilities of breaking through $105, $110, and $120 are 42%, 27%, and 16%, respectively.

Gate News bot message, a newly created wallet spent $57.5K on Polymarket betting that the U.S. will invade Cuba in 2026. The bet temporarily pushed the odds above 80%. This person is currently down $31K on the position.

Israeli *Times of Israel* military reporter Emanuel Fabian recently disclosed that after reporting on an Iranian ballistic missile that struck an empty field in Beit Shemesh, a suburb of Jerusalem, he faced sustained harassment from bettors associated with Polymarket, including receiving death threats. This incident is particularly striking not only because it involves frontline war reporting and a prediction market with a funding pool exceeding $14 million, but also because it reveals an increasingly acute question: when market participants' profits begin to depend on media narratives, public information, and even violent events themselves, is the prediction market truly "price discovery," or is it creating dangerous incentives for the real world? Why did a frontline report trigger a mob of bettors? "That day, I reported on the *Times of Israel*'s live blog that the missile struck an empty field, with no

A Buenos Aires court ordered telecom regulator ENACOM to block Polymarket nationwide. Apple and Google must remove the app from stores after authorities classified it as illegal gambling. The investigation cited inflation prediction activity and potential access by minors. Argentina

On the Polymarket prediction market, 4 addresses have invested $97,000 betting on whether the Iranian regime will fall before June 30. The probability of "yes" currently stands at 28%. Analysts believe that Iran faces military strikes and economic sanctions, with intensifying internal factional disputes, but the Iranian Revolutionary Guards still maintain control of the situation and regime survival remains intact.

Polymarket predictions show that a certain address invested $4,500 with a 77% win rate to purchase the "yes" option for the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal, with the current probability at 25%. Iraq and Iran are negotiating tanker passage safety and considering resuming pipeline operations, with the UAE potentially participating in international action to secure the strait.

Venezuela defeated the United States 3-2 in the 2026 WBC Classic, winning their first championship in team history. The match was thrilling, with the United States tying it at one point before Venezuela's Eugenio Suárez delivered a key hit to secure the victory. Prediction markets experienced a reversal, with one trader successfully betting on Venezuela and earning profits exceeding $344,749 (approximately 10.97 million New Taiwan Dollars). MLB expert predictions largely did not align with the actual results, demonstrating how unpredictable sporting events can be.

Recently, Korean middle-aged retail investors have driven a surge in XRP trading activity, with transaction volumes rising significantly. Analysts indicate that enthusiasm from investors aged 40 to 50 and interest in XRP ETFs continue to increase, with expectations that XRP prices may rise in the short term, solidifying its position in the Asian market.