ChainCatcher News, Gate CBO Kevin Lee has published a new article titled “War, War Has Never Changed… How Will the Macro Markets Move?” It points out that geopolitical conflicts themselves do not alter the fundamental logic of market operation. What truly determines the medium-term direction of assets is the impact of ongoing conflicts on inflation trajectories and changes in central bank policy stances.
Kevin states that within hours to days after a conflict erupts, crude oil usually experiences significant volatility first, with market pricing in the tail risk of supply disruptions; gold then follows, serving as both a safe haven and an inflation hedge; stock markets face short-term pressure, with the VIX rising rapidly and sector divergence becoming apparent.
After several days to two weeks, if energy supplies remain unaffected, oil prices and risk premiums tend to retrace, and stocks and cryptocurrencies rebound as risk sentiment recovers; however, if high oil prices persist longer, inflation expectations will be systematically elevated, shifting asset valuation logic from trading to macroeconomic fundamentals.
The article further emphasizes that the true change in trend is not the market reaction on the day of the conflict but the inflation data and policy expectations that gradually emerge weeks later. Over longer cycles, markets will reprice around inflation evolution, the credibility of monetary policy, and economic growth prospects. Historical experience repeatedly shows that in environments of high uncertainty, emotional decision-making can be costly. Understanding transmission sequences and respecting cyclical laws are key to navigating volatility.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
IEA Announces Release of Emergency Oil Reserves, Asia-Pacific Inventory Immediately Available
Gate News reported that on March 15, the International Energy Agency (IEA, an international organization responsible for coordinating energy policies among member states) stated that oil from the IEA's emergency reserves will soon begin flowing into global markets. Inventory from Asian and Oceanian countries will be immediately available for use, while inventory from European and American countries will be available by the end of March.
GateNews45m ago
US Energy Secretary: Iran Conflict Will End in "Coming Weeks," Oil Supply Will Recover
Gate News reported that on March 15, U.S. Energy Secretary Wright stated in an interview with ABC News that the Iran conflict will end "in the coming weeks," after which oil supply will recover and energy prices will decline.
GateNews2h ago
DeFi enters a "winter of yields": liquidity stagnation, leverage contraction, and the disappearance of arbitrage opportunities
Since September 2025, the DeFi market has entered a "interest rate winter," with the annualized deposit yields of mainstream stablecoins dropping to lows, and supply and demand imbalances causing excess liquidity. As borrowing demand declines, stablecoin lending rates have also decreased, and the reduced risk appetite in the crypto market has led investors to shift toward more stable assets. Some protocols, such as Sky, offer stable returns through real-world assets, but the overall trend still indicates a period of adjustment and structural reform in DeFi.
区块客3h ago
Tom Lee: Rising oil prices are relatively bullish for US stocks; the US stock market may bottom out this month.
BitMine Chairman Tom Lee stated in an interview that rising oil prices are beneficial for the U.S. stock market, and investors tend to hold growth stocks, particularly the Magnificent 7. He believes the U.S. stock market may be forming a bottom and pointed out that current private credit issues will not lead to systemic risk.
GateNews6h ago
US First Batch of 86 Million Barrels of Strategic Petroleum Reserve to Hit Market Next Week, Using Loan-for-Oil Premium Model
The U.S. Department of Energy issued a solicitation on March 15, planning to allocate 86 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to stabilize the market and replenish reserves. Over the next year, about 200 million barrels will be added to maintain energy security. The current reserve level is 415.4 million barrels.
GateNews7h ago
2026 World Cup Could Become the Event with the Highest "AI Concentration," Expected to Consume 160 Trillion Related Tokens Daily
Gate News reports that on March 15, according to Caixin.com, the 2026 FIFA World Cup, set to begin in June, may become the World Cup with the highest "AI concentration" ever. Industry insiders estimate that during the World Cup period, global daily Token consumption could reach approximately 5.35 quadrillion, with World Cup-related Token consumption accounting for about 1.6 quadrillion. In comparison, global Token consumption at the beginning of this year was approximately 2 trillion per day.
GateNews8h ago
