Macroeconomics

Gate News Announcement, on March 11, Fitch Ratings stated on March 12 that a cooling labor market and slowing wage growth could lead the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice in 2026.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is facing staffing shortages due to a federal government hiring freeze, affecting price data collection. The use of low-precision estimation methods has increased from 9% to 40%. The bureau has currently posted job openings to alleviate this situation.

Gate News Report, March 11th: The seasonally adjusted core CPI (Core Consumer Price Index, a key indicator of inflation) for February in the United States rose by 0.2% month-over-month, in line with market expectations of 0.2%, compared to the previous value of 0.3%.

Gate News Report: On March 11, the US February seasonally adjusted CPI (Consumer Price Index, a key indicator of inflation) annual rate was 2.4%, in line with market expectations and unchanged from the previous month.

Gate News: On March 11, the United States announced that the seasonally adjusted core CPI (Consumer Price Index excluding food and energy) for February was 2.5% year-over-year, in line with market expectations and unchanged from the previous month.

Due to the rise of stablecoins, traditional banks will face deposit outflows and profit pressure. Jefferies predicts that in the next five years, bank core deposits may decline by 3%-5%, and the stablecoin market size is expected to expand to $1.15 trillion within five years. Although traditional banks will not face existential threats in the short term, they need to contend with revenue competition. To address these challenges, financial giants are actively deploying stablecoins.

Gate News: On March 11, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi announced that she will release the equivalent of 15 days' worth of private sector oil reserves and one month of national oil reserves.

UBS Group Chief Economist Paul Donovan stated that although the U.S. February Consumer Price Index data is about to be released, it remains crucial for Federal Reserve policy. He predicts that potential inflation pressures are moderate and emphasizes that the Federal Reserve should respond to broad price increases rather than isolated market disturbances.

Gate News Report, March 11 — According to two sources, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has recommended releasing a total of up to 400 million barrels of oil reserves (national strategic petroleum reserves used to address supply disruptions or stabilize oil prices).

Tastylive Global Macro Director Ilya Spivak pointed out that the market is focused on the upcoming U.S. inflation data, with an expected overall February CPI year-over-year rate of 2.4%. He warned that if core services prices continue to decline, it could trigger market optimism; otherwise, financial markets may fluctuate again, and prolonged high interest rates will put pressure on investors.

Gate News Report, March 11 — Gold prices declined in early trading but remained around $5200 per ounce as investors digest mixed signals from the Middle East conflict. On the previous trading day, gold prices rose due to a softer dollar and falling oil prices easing inflation concerns. ANZ Bank analysts stated, "However, ongoing developments continue to cast a shadow over the prospect of a rate cut in the United States. This has led investors to continue withdrawing gold from gold ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds)." Traders are currently awaiting the release of U.S. inflation data tonight to seek more clues about the interest rate outlook.

T. Rowe Price Portfolio Manager Vincent Chung pointed out that the Bank of Japan may keep interest rates unchanged in March and is expected to adjust its policy in April based on wage negotiation data. He mentioned that rising oil prices increase inflation risks, and markets may be concerned about yen intervention. If the central bank signals a dovish stance, it could further pressure the yen.

Pepperstone analyst Michael Brown stated that oil prices will become the main driving force in the market, surpassing the importance of February US inflation data. Although comments from US President Trump provide some reassurance, the market still needs to pay attention to the development of the situation, as the influence of economic data may be limited.

U.S. President Trump stated on March 10th that the Iran war is "almost over," leading to a cooling of geopolitical risk sentiment and driving cryptocurrencies like BTC to reverse and break above $70,000. Market expectations for the end date of the war have significantly increased, and risk assets are generally rising. Reflecting on the airstrike on February 28th, the market had wiped out $12.8 billion, and most indicators remain neutral with a key resistance at $74,000. Noticing that oil prices have fallen below $100, which may further support risk assets. Today's U.S. CPI data will influence market sentiment.

Seven major central banks will announce interest rate decisions next week, prompting the market to reassess global inflation and rate cut expectations. The Middle East conflict has led to rising oil prices, which could impact Bitcoin prices.

Benoit Anne of MFS Investment Management stated that the current threat of stagflation is lower than in 2022, and market concerns about inflation driven by rising oil prices have diminished. Data shows that the one-year inflation breakeven rate in the US has increased, while long-term interest rates have remained relatively unchanged, reflecting that market inflation expectations are stabilizing.

Bitcoin price drops below $70,000 again due to geopolitical risks and market caution. Trump's warning to Iran has increased market uncertainty, and high oil prices are affecting investor confidence, despite institutional continued buying of Bitcoin. Market sentiment remains cautious, with investors paying attention to U.S. CPI data and the progress of the CLARITY Act.

Bitcoin recently broke through $70,000 again, influenced by changes in the energy market. Its price once reached $71,612 before falling back to $70,036. The market sentiment is related to discussions with the International Energy Agency about releasing strategic oil reserves, and the decline in Brent crude oil prices is seen as a signal to reduce inflation pressure. The market is focused on the Federal Reserve policy meeting, with expectations that if oil prices remain below $90, it will create room for interest rate cuts.

Research shows that 73% of Americans using cryptocurrencies gamble due to financial hardship, with the rate among Generation Z reaching 80%. As high living costs and traditional savings methods become ineffective, investing in high-risk assets is seen as a way to pursue financial goals. The appeal of cryptocurrencies comes from the hope of improving one's situation rather than pure greed.

The U.S. Department of Labor will release the February CPI data tonight, with market expectations remaining the same at 2.4% as the previous value. CPI is an important inflation indicator, and the data release could influence the dollar's movement. Despite February non-farm employment data falling short of expectations, market expectations for interest rate cuts have not been significantly adjusted.