Gate Daily (March 2): Trump campaign faces "insider trading" allegations over Iran airstrike; Vitalik explains Ethereum execution layer roadmap

Bitcoin (BTC) rebounded from weekend lows, currently around $66,700 as of March 2. A mysterious account precisely bet on U.S. airstrikes against Iran, while the Trump camp faces insider trading allegations. Vitalik Buterin outlines Ethereum’s execution layer roadmap, focusing on two major changes: state trees and virtual machines.

Macro Events & Crypto Highlights

1. Last weekend, as traditional global financial markets closed, large capital flows shifted into prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi, as well as decentralized exchanges like Hyperliquid. Investors attempted to hedge risks or speculate on the impact of U.S. and Israel’s attacks on Iran via these platforms. However, this capital frenzy quickly turned into a controversy. On Saturday, numerous questions arose on social platform X, accusing some insiders of profiting from early knowledge of military strikes in prediction markets.

In response, a White House spokesperson defended, “The only special interest guiding Trump administration decisions is the greatest interest of the American people.” In fact, efforts to crack down on insider bets related to international conflicts have already begun in some regions worldwide. Facing criticism, Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour stated that all fees generated from user participation in the controversial markets would be refunded, and positions established before Qasem Soleimani’s death would be forcibly settled at the last trading price. However, this “forced liquidation” did not quell the controversy; many users complained on social media about being played by the platform.

2. Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin posted on social media outlining Ethereum’s execution layer roadmap, emphasizing two major changes: state trees and virtual machines. For state trees, Vitalik supports upgrading the current hexadecimal Merkle Patricia tree to a more efficient binary tree based on a better hash function via EIP-7864. This change can reduce Merkle branch length by 4 times, lowering client verification bandwidth costs; hash functions could be replaced with Blake3 or Poseidon series, significantly improving proof efficiency. The binary tree design will also group storage slots into “pages,” reducing access costs for adjacent storage, saving over 10,000 gas per transaction in many DeFi applications. Additionally, the binary structure is simpler and reserves metadata bits for future state expiration features.

Regarding virtual machines, Vitalik proposes a long-term goal to replace EVM, potentially adopting a RISC-V architecture. The new VM must meet four objectives: higher raw execution efficiency eliminating most precompiles; proof efficiency surpassing EVM; support for client-side ZK proof generation; and maximum simplification of code implementation. He notes that sticking with “EVM + GPU” is “good enough” for Ethereum now, but a better VM would make the protocol more powerful. The deployment roadmap involves three steps: first, using the new VM to replace precompiles; then allowing users to deploy contracts based on the new VM; finally, retiring EVM and transitioning to smart contracts written in the new VM, achieving full backward compatibility.

News Highlights

1. Arthur Hayes: Long-term U.S. involvement in Iran conflict could force the Fed to print money, pushing Bitcoin prices higher.

2. Huang Licheng faces further liquidation; his wallet balance now only about $9,000.

3. J.P. Morgan: Crypto market structure bill expected to pass by mid-year, serving as a positive catalyst in the second half.

4. X platform has removed “financial products, cryptocurrencies” from its “paid partnership policy” industry categories.

5. Mysterious account precisely bets on Iran airstrikes; Trump camp faces insider trading allegations.

6. Vitalik discusses Ethereum’s execution layer roadmap, focusing on state trees and virtual machine changes.

7. Michael Saylor releases Bitcoin tracker updates; increased holdings data expected this week.

8. ANZ Bank: Geopolitical risks intensify, but gold remains in a “favorable position.”

9. Analysts warn this Middle East crisis could be different; advise against rushing to buy dips.

10. Schroders strategists: U.S.-Israel military escalation; if gold hits new highs, it wouldn’t be surprising.

Market Trends

1. Latest Bitcoin news: BTC rebounded from weekend lows, currently around $66,700, with $191 million in liquidation over the past 24 hours, mostly long positions.

2. Due to multiple factors, U.S. stocks declined on February 27. Concerns over geopolitical conflicts, private credit issues, and AI-related worries fueled risk aversion. Higher-than-expected inflation data and upcoming employment reports heightened fears, with investors worried AI’s impact on labor markets could be worse than expected. The Nasdaq closed down 1.2% last Friday, S&P 500 down 0.5%, with monthly declines of 3.4% and 0.9%, marking the worst monthly performance since early last year. The Dow fell 1.1% last Friday but still gained 0.2% for the month, marking ten consecutive months of gains—the longest streak since 2018.

(Source: Gate)

3. According to Gate’s BTC/USDT liquidation map, with current price at $66,522.90, if price drops to around $65,214, total long liquidation exceeds $208 million; if it rises to about $67,784, total short liquidation exceeds $1.02 billion. Short positions face significantly higher liquidation amounts, so prudent leverage control is advised to avoid large-scale liquidations during market swings.

(Source: Coinglass)

4. In the past 24 hours, spot inflows totaled $2.7 billion, outflows $2.85 billion, net outflow $150 million.

(Source: Coinglass)

5. Over the past 24 hours, net outflows in contracts trading for $ETH, $BTC, $HYPE, $DOT, $DOGE, and others indicate trading opportunities.

X KOL Insights

Phyrex Ni (@Phyrex_Ni): “Had a sleepless night today, forgot it’s weekend, either watching Iran-related geopolitical conflicts or researching X’s paid partnership policies. It seems X has now modified its rules against paid promotion of cryptocurrencies, except in Australia, EU, and UK—other regions can now promote crypto for payment. Of course, disclosures are still necessary; I saw one English account already posted a sponsored post.”

“Geopolitical conflicts are even more complicated. I thought Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei was dead, the U.S. destroyed Iran’s Navy headquarters, and sank 9 Iranian naval vessels. The war should be over, Trump said he’s ready to negotiate, but there’s no ceasefire yet, and the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. Oil prices might rise tomorrow.”

“The biggest concern is the risk markets. If the conflict ends over the weekend, U.S. stocks on Monday might not be affected much, and crypto could rebound. But if it doesn’t, market reactions could be worse. Tomorrow morning, Asian traders will react, and in the evening, U.S. and European investors. Just thinking about it gives me a headache.”

“Looking at Bitcoin data, this weekend was far from peaceful—issues piled up, trading volume kept decreasing, turnover slightly increased, and investor confidence remains low. It’s normal. I planned a three-day trip, but it turned out more exhausting than staying home. Still, short-term traders in BTC are just that—short-term.”

“The chip structure still looks good; even if markets open Monday, it probably won’t be too bad. But liquidity is low, buying power weak. Even with a good chip structure and many investors not participating in turnover, short-term exits are draining the already limited funds.”

Today’s Outlook

1. France February Manufacturing PMI Final, previous 51.2

2. Germany February Manufacturing PMI Final, previous 49.1

3. Eurozone February Manufacturing PMI Final, previous 49.5

4. UK February Manufacturing PMI (Final), previous 51.8

5. US January Durable Goods Orders (Revised MoM), previous -1.4%

6. US February ISM Manufacturing PMI, previous 52.6