Analysis: De-globalization and AI reshaping the macro environment, with crypto assets being sold off as high-beta growth assets

PANews February 24 Report: According to Wintermute’s market update, the current macro environment is experiencing a dual-driven restructuring of de-globalization and artificial intelligence, leading the market into a slow adjustment phase with difficult trading. Bitcoin is consolidating between $64,000 and $67,000, repeatedly failing to hold above $70,000, with weak rebounds reflecting a lack of market confidence. Ethereum has fallen below the $1,900 psychological level, with the next key support at $1,600. The report points out that the Federal Reserve is no longer the sole dominant force in the market. Ongoing structural tariffs, real-time disruptions caused by AI across industries, slowing growth, and sticky inflation all weaken the effectiveness of monetary policy tools. The market is simultaneously pricing in two major structural themes: AI valuation re-evaluation—software moat reassessed, growth multiples compressed, hardware capital expenditure questioned; de-globalization—supply chain fragmentation, rising input costs, and geopolitical settlement risks becoming permanent features of asset allocation. These two factors jointly impact the valuation premiums of globally integrated, software-leverage growth companies.

Funds are shifting from growth stocks to value sectors, with gold, commodities, industrials, and defense outperforming technology. The derivatives market shows a lack of directional demand, with funding rates at multi-month lows, put option premiums rising steadily, and open interest decreasing since October. Institutional demand has not returned after Bitcoin’s price stabilization; trading desks are mainly selling. The brief signal of high-net-worth clients selectively buying some altcoins during the week quickly faded, and the market remains defensive, unprepared to reward early positions. The report believes that current narratives are consolidating into a macro systemic shift, with crypto assets being sold as the highest-beta growth assets. The sustainability of this shift will be the most critical issue for the crypto market in 2026.