Trump considers limited military strikes on Iran, with the probability of attack rising to 60% by the end of March

BlockBeats News, February 20 — According to The Wall Street Journal, sources familiar with the matter reveal that Trump is weighing a preliminary, limited military strike against Iran to pressure it into agreeing to a nuclear deal. This strike plan, if authorized, could be implemented within days and would target a few military or government facilities. If Iran continues to refuse Trump’s demand to cease uranium enrichment activities, the United States will launch a large-scale attack on the regime’s facilities — potentially aiming to overthrow the Tehran government.

After weeks of deliberation, it remains unclear how seriously Trump is considering this plan, though senior aides have repeatedly presented it to him. U.S. officials say recent discussions have focused more on larger-scale strikes, but Trump has not yet decided to order any attack. Some U.S. officials and analysts warn that such strikes could provoke Iranian retaliation, potentially dragging the U.S. into a broader Middle East war and endangering regional allies.

Additionally, market sources indicate that Iran, in a letter to the UN Secretary-General and Security Council members, stated, “If attacked, all bases, facilities, and assets of hostile forces in the region will be considered legitimate targets within Iran’s defensive response framework.” Trump’s remarks suggest “a real risk of military aggression.” Iran does not seek escalation or war and would not initiate conflict first.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of the U.S. striking Iran before the end of February has risen to 26%, the probability before March 15 to 52%, and the probability before the end of March to 60%.