Bitwise Files for PredictionShares ETFs Tied to 2026 and 2028 U.S. Election Outcomes

• Bitwise filed for ETFs tied to US election outcomes under the PredictionShares brand.

• The proposed funds would hold regulated event contracts linked to 2026 and 2028 races.

• SEC approval remains pending as regulators review prediction market ETF rules.

Bitwise Asset Management has filed with U.S. regulators to launch exchange-traded funds tied to political prediction markets. The proposal marks a new step in bringing event-based contracts into mainstream investment portfolios. The filing outlines a product line branded as “PredictionShares.” However, the funds cannot launch until regulators approve the registration statement.

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The preliminary prospectus is dated Feb. 17. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart disclosed details of the filing on social media. The document states that the offering remains incomplete. Therefore, the securities cannot be sold until the registration becomes effective.

Election-Based Contracts Form the Core Strategy

The proposed ETFs focus on U.S. election outcomes. Specifically, Bitwise plans separate funds tracking whether Democrats or Republicans win the 2028 presidential election. In addition, the lineup includes products tied to party control of the House and Senate in the 2026 midterm elections.

Unlike traditional thematic ETFs, these funds would not invest in companies linked to political activity. Instead, they would hold event-based contracts traded on regulated venues. These contracts pay out based on real-world outcomes, such as certified election results.

As a result, investors could gain exposure to prediction markets through standard brokerage accounts. Bitwise structured the platform to provide regulated access within existing ETF frameworks. Nevertheless, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has not granted approval.

Regulatory Review and Industry Scrutiny

Regulators continue to assess how prediction market products fit within securities and derivatives laws. The filing confirms that approval remains pending. Consequently, no launch date has been set.

In recent months, similar ETF proposals have appeared. Analysts expect additional filings as market interest grows. However, regulators have not approved any election-based prediction ETFs to date.

Meanwhile, the broader debate around prediction markets remains active. Some policymakers argue that certain contracts may fall under securities rules. Therefore, regulatory clarity will likely shape the timeline for approval.

Rising Competition in the Prediction ETF Space

Other asset managers have also entered the race. Roundhill Investments previously submitted filings for election-focused ETFs. GraniteShares has introduced competing proposals as well. Yet none of these products has secured regulatory clearance.

At the same time, platforms such as Polymarket have reported heavy trading during major political events. Increased activity has drawn attention from both investors and regulators. Supporters argue that prediction markets can reflect shifting sentiment quickly. However, critics warn that such contracts can behave like speculative bets.

Industry analysts note that funds linked to specific outcomes could lose significant value if forecasts prove incorrect. Therefore, risk assessment will play a central role in regulatory evaluation.