Bitcoin falls below 100,000, hinting at a financial crisis? Aisman: Funds are shifting into "old economy" stocks

The big short protagonist Steve Eisman warns that Bitcoin weakness indicates a shift of funds into tangible economic stocks. Verrone from Strategas points out that sectors such as transportation, banking, and chemicals are taking turns, with Bank of America’s stock reaching a new high since 2006. Bitcoin remains below its peak of 125,000 USD, and Verrone states, “2026 belongs to physical assets.”

Bitcoin Weakness Suggests End of the Speculative Era

In the podcast “Real Eisman Playbook,” Eisman invites Chris Verrone, partner at macro research firm Strategas, and Wedbush Securities analyst, tech bull Dan Ives. Verrone says, “I believe we are in a phase in the first half of 2026 where the economy is shifting from highly speculative sectors to real economy sectors.”

Regarding Bitcoin, Verrone notes that recent weakness over the past few months indicates investors are turning toward tangible stocks. He mentions that Bitcoin is still far below last October’s high of 125,000 USD. He believes that even if Bitcoin rebounds to 105,000 or 110,000 USD, it cannot change the trend: “2026 will no longer belong to assets that rely on liquidity, high volatility, and speculation, but to truly valuable physical assets.”

This judgment is based on historical experience. Verrone points out that before every financial crisis, funds tend to withdraw from high-risk assets and shift to more defensive sectors. Although some see Bitcoin as “digital gold,” in the eyes of institutional investors, its volatility makes it more akin to a speculative asset rather than a safe haven. When market sentiment shifts from greed to fear, Bitcoin is often one of the first assets to be sold.

The Old Economy Stocks’ Turn Has Arrived

Verrone highlights that sectors such as transportation, regional banks, housing, chemicals, and commodities are about to play a role. He says these sectors “have been largely absent from the market stage over the past two, three, four years,” but some stocks within them can be viewed as “AI derivative stocks.” This perspective overturns traditional thinking: AI beneficiaries are not only Nvidia and Microsoft but also include transportation and energy sectors.

Both Eisman and Verrone are optimistic about the financial sector. Verrone notes that US bank stocks hit a new high since November 2006 last month. He expects a policy cycle of deregulation and M&A in finance, and both believe that a wave of regional bank mergers could occur in 2026. The Trump administration’s easing of financial regulations has created a more favorable environment for banks, and increased profit margins will directly reflect in stock prices.

Verrone is also bullish on alternative private equity stocks such as Apollo Global Management and Blackstone Group, which saw their stock prices fall last fall due to credit concerns. As the credit market stabilizes, these private giants managing hundreds of billions of dollars will regain market favor. The healthcare sector remains a focus for Verrone, with notable companies including Eli Lilly and Intuitive Surgical (ISRG).

Old Economy Sectors to Watch in 2026

Regional Banks: Deregulation and M&A wave drive stocks to new highs since 2006

Transportation and Logistics: AI data center construction boosts demand for equipment and materials

Chemicals and Commodities: Rio Tinto, BHP, and Freeport-McMoRan are seen as third-tier AI derivative stocks

Energy Stocks: Nuclear and traditional energy benefit from AI data center power demands

AI Energy Bottlenecks Expose Physical Asset Value

The three also emphasize that energy supply remains a key risk in AI investment logic. Eisman mentions that in Santa Clara, California, two data centers are built but cannot connect to the grid because the local power company cannot supply electricity. “We have to admit that some things may progress slower than the market expects, which will lead to market adjustments,” Eisman states. Ives agrees and is optimistic about the nuclear sector.

This energy bottleneck is reshaping investment logic. When OpenAI, Google, and Microsoft rush to build data centers but find electricity insufficient, the bargaining power of energy suppliers greatly increases. Verrone notes that the strong performance of commodities over the past few months is another significant shift. He points out that companies like Rio Tinto, BHP, Freeport-McMoRan, and even energy stocks can be viewed as third- or fourth-tier AI derivative beneficiaries.

He also notes that oil producers’ stock performance has outpaced crude oil prices because their breakeven points are falling. This “stock price outperforming oil price” phenomenon indicates that the market is paying a premium for improved profit margins of energy companies. In the AI era, energy is no longer a cyclical commodity but a strategic resource.

In terms of tech stocks, Ives predicts over 20% gains in 2026. He is bullish on AI beneficiaries like Palantir, Snowflake, and MongoDB, and also points out that cybersecurity companies are overlooked by the market. Among large tech stocks, he forecasts Oracle and Microsoft will significantly outperform in the coming year, and mentions “Apple will enter the AI field through collaboration with Gemini,” referring to market rumors of Apple’s AI partnership with Google. He believes Apple’s stock could experience “significant volatility” this year, and Verrone also states he is “very optimistic” about Apple’s stock trajectory.

The stock market is expected to fluctuate on Tuesday, with a strong start on Monday. Some sectors that underperformed in 2025, such as finance, consumer, and energy, benefit from geopolitical turmoil, driving the market higher.