Recently, Bitcoin prices have continued to rebound, with the latest quote around $93,800, gradually approaching the important resistance zone of $95,000. Over the past 7 days, Bitcoin has increased approximately 7.5%, with a 30-day gain of 4.5%, and 24-hour trading volume has increased by over 30% year-on-year, indicating a significant revival in market participation. Meanwhile, derivatives trading remains active, open interest steadily rising, suggesting that funds are rotating rather than aggressively leveraging.
However, from a risk-adjusted return perspective, the market is not uniformly optimistic. CryptoQuant data shows that Bitcoin’s Sharpe ratio has been declining continuously, and the one-year return remains in negative territory. This means that although prices are rising, the return efficiency per unit of risk is decreasing. In previous strong bull markets, prices and the Sharpe ratio often moved upward together, but the current divergence suggests that this rally is driven more by short-term funds rather than stable demand.
Cycle indicators also signal a cooling-off. The bull-bear cycle model has retreated from high levels but has not yet fallen into an extreme pessimistic zone, indicating the market is more in a consolidation phase rather than capitulation. On-chain data shows that long-term holders remain stable, while short-term traders’ profitability is beginning to be pressured, a structure often seen during high-level oscillations.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has re-claimed the 10-day and 50-day moving averages but remains constrained by medium- to long-term moving averages in the $96,000 to $106,000 range. The RSI is at 65, indicating momentum is still decent, but stochastic and Williams indicators are approaching overbought levels, increasing short-term correction risks. Bollinger Bands show the price near the upper band, which is more consistent with a sideways correction rather than a trend breakout.
Overall, if Bitcoin can stabilize above $92,000 to $93,000, it may attempt to challenge $95,000 again or even test the psychological level of $100,000; conversely, a pullback could target support levels at $90,000 and $88,500. In the short term, investors should be cautious of potential volatility driven by indicator divergences.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
NYSE Lifts Crypto Options Cap Across 11 BTC and ETH ETFs
Two NYSE-affiliated venues have scrapped the 25,000-contract cap on options tied to 11 crypto ETF options, a move the exchanges filed with the Federal Register on March 10. The Securities and Exchange Commission acknowledged the rule alterations on Sunday by waiving the standard 30-day waiting
CryptoBreaking25m ago
NYSE Exchanges Remove 25,000-Contract Options Cap on 11 Bitcoin and Ether ETFs
NYSE Arca and NYSE American have removed the 25,000-contract position and exercise limits on options tied to 11 spot Bitcoin and Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs), with the rule changes filed on March 10, 2026, becoming immediately effective after the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) waived the standard 30-day waiting period.
CryptopulseElite39m ago
Gate Daily Report (March 23): MicroStrategy Releases Bitcoin Buy Signal; MajiDaBro's ETH Liquidation Incurs Losses of 30.35 Million
Bitcoin has continued to decline to around $67,950, with MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor reiterating a buy-the-dip strategy. Huang Licheng's highly leveraged ETH position was completely liquidated, with losses exceeding $30.35 million. Fidelity has called on the US SEC to improve its regulatory framework for crypto assets. US stocks have broadly declined, and market sentiment remains cautious.
MarketWhisper42m ago
Bitcoin Miners' Mining Cost Reaches $88,000, Market Price $69,200, Average Loss of 21%
Bitcoin miners currently have an average production cost of $88,000, with market prices around $69,200, resulting in losses of 21%. Mining difficulty has decreased by 7.76%, with hash price approaching the break-even line. Most mining enterprises are shifting toward AI business, and increased miner Bitcoin sales are adding selling pressure to the market. The next difficulty adjustment is expected in early April, and if conditions persist, further downward adjustments may occur.
GateNews43m ago
Tianqiao Capital Founder: BTC Four-Year Cycle Still Valid, Expects Rally to Resume in 2026 Q4
Skybridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci stated that Bitcoin's current bear market can be explained by the four-year cycle theory, with long-term holders concentrating their selling around $100,000. He predicts that Bitcoin will rebound in the fourth quarter of 2026, marking the start of a new bull market cycle. While institutional investor inflows and ETF capital flows have suppressed the four-year cycle, they have not completely eliminated its pattern.
GateNews59m ago
