Meme coin price forecast: DOGE, SHIB, and PEPE rise together, Maduro becomes the key driver

After the United States arrested Maduro, DOGE, SHIB, and PEPE experienced a rally. PEPE surged 77% in four days, SHIB rose 12% on Sunday, breaking out of the downtrend channel, and DOGE increased for five consecutive days, breaking above $0.15. The market reflects concerns that Venezuela’s 600,000 BTC holdings may be absorbed or frozen by the US, reducing supply and triggering demand.

Venezuela’s 600,000 BTC Shadow Reserves Ignite Market Imagination

(Source: Serenity)

Venezuela has shifted from petrodollars to cryptocurrency settlements for crude oil sales, involving approximately $10 billion to $15 billion. It is believed that Maduro has exchanged USDT for Bitcoin to avoid wallet freezing. Additionally, between 2018 and 2020, $2 billion worth of gold was exchanged for Bitcoin, along with the seizure of Bitcoin mining farms. Venezuela’s shadow reserves may hold about 600,000 BTC, valued at $60 billion to $67 billion.

If the US strategically absorbs or freezes Venezuela’s Bitcoin holdings, it would effectively reduce supply and cause a surge in demand. The current market recovery reflects expectations of potential supply reduction. This supply shock not only drives Bitcoin itself higher but also creates a risk appetite revival across the entire crypto market. Meme coins, as high Beta assets, tend to perform most aggressively in such sentiment-driven rallies.

Venezuela’s 600,000 BTC holdings account for about 3% of the circulating supply, a proportion sufficient to cause structural market impact. Germany’s sale of 50,000 BTC in 2024 previously triggered a 15-20% correction, and Venezuela’s holdings are 12 times that amount. If these Bitcoins are locked for 5-10 years, the market will face unprecedented supply tightening. This long-term bullish outlook is fueling gains across the entire crypto market, including meme coins.

DOGE 5-Day Rally Target $0.18

(Source: Trading View)

As of Monday, Dogecoin rose 2%, continuing the 4% gain on Sunday, marking the fifth consecutive day of gains. The meme coin, themed around dogs, broke above the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) of $0.14339 and stabilized above the round number of $0.15000.

The recovery of Dogecoin reflects a breakout from a descending wedge pattern on the daily logarithmic chart. The breakout target is the 200-day moving average at $0.18202, overlapping with the supply zone between $0.18100 and $0.18500. Momentum indicators on the daily chart show bullish dominance, with RSI at 65 still room to rise, and MACD along with green histograms continuing upward, indicating strengthening bullish momentum.

If Dogecoin falls below $0.14399, the breakout rally could be invalidated, risking a decline to the round number of $0.13000. Price forecasts suggest that as long as DOGE remains above the 50-day EMA, its upward trend will continue.

SHIB Breaks Downward Channel PEPE Deeply Overbought

(Source: Trading View)

On Sunday, Shiba Inu surged nearly 12%, breaking the resistance trendline connecting the highs of October 13 and November 11. As of Monday, SHIB declined over 1%, consolidating slightly above the 50-day moving average. If SHIB continues its recovery, its target could be the 200-day moving average at $0.00001065.

Similar to DOGE, SHIB’s daily momentum indicators also show strong upward momentum. RSI hovers near 65, approaching overbought territory, and MACD has crossed above zero with green histograms rising. From a downside perspective, failure to hold the 50-day moving average at $0.00000821 could invalidate the upward breakout, risking a fall to the October 10 low of $0.00000678.

As of Monday, Pepe’s price slightly declined nearly 2%, after rising nearly 18% on Sunday. This frog-themed meme coin, after rising over 77% in four days, suddenly paused, indicating resistance near the 200-day moving average at $0.00000749. If PEPE breaks above this moving average, the rally could extend to the September 25 low of $0.00000886.

RSI at 79 indicates deep overbought conditions, possibly signaling that buying pressure may not be sustainable. However, the surge in MACD suggests increasing bullish momentum. Price forecasts show PEPE is currently in a high-risk, high-reward state, with potential for short-term technical pullback. On the downside, a reversal could test resistance at $0.00000650, turning into support.

Despite this, the technical outlook for mainstream meme coins remains bullish. The Venezuela shadow reserve event injects a new narrative into the entire crypto market. Expectations of reduced supply combined with technical breakthroughs create an ideal environment for meme coins to rally in Q1 2026.

DOGE SHIB PEPE Technical Analysis Overview

Dogecoin (DOGE) Technical Indicators

Current Price: Above $0.15

Key Breakout: 50-day EMA at $0.14339

Target Price: 200-day moving average at $0.18202

Resistance Zone: $0.18100 to $0.18500

RSI: 65 (room to rise from overbought)

MACD: Rising in sync with green histograms

Risk: Falling below $0.14399 will invalidate breakout

Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Indicators

Sunday Gain: Nearly 12%

Key Breakout: Descending channel connecting 10/13 and 11/11 highs

Current Status: Slightly consolidating above 50-day MA

Target Price: 200-day moving average at $0.00001065

RSI: Near 65, approaching overbought

MACD: Crossed above zero with rising green histograms

Risk: Losing 50-day MA at $0.00000821 could lead to a drop to $0.00000678

PEPE Technical Indicators

(Source: Trading View)

Four-day Gain: 77%

Current Status: Near 200-day moving average at $0.00000749

Target Price: September 25 low at $0.00000886

RSI: 79 (deep overbought)

MACD: Surge indicates increasing bullish momentum

Risk: Overbought conditions may lead to profit-taking, testing $0.00000650