U.S. Treasury bonds surpass $38.5 trillion! Bitcoin's 17th anniversary Genesis Day reflects the fiat currency crisis

Beginning in 2026, the scale of U.S. national debt surpassed the $38.5 trillion mark—an level originally expected to be reached around 2030, but now broken four years early, highlighting the rapid deterioration of the U.S. fiscal situation. Meanwhile, the global Bitcoin community celebrated the 17th anniversary of Bitcoin’s Genesis Day on January 3rd, commemorating the birth of the first block in 2009. The embedded headline, “The Chancellor is on the brink of implementing the second round of bank emergency aid,” echoes across a seventeen-year history with the current massive national debt.

Analysts point out that annual debt interest payments of one trillion dollars have become the “new normal” in fiscal policy, while government efforts to increase revenue and cut costs through tariffs and institutional reforms are insufficient against the backdrop of such a large debt base. This stark contrast continues to reinforce Bitcoin’s core narrative as an inflation-resistant, fixed-supply asset.

$38.5 Trillion: An Overdrawn Fiscal Milestone Ahead of Schedule

At the start of the new year, the U.S. federal debt clock ticked past an unsettling number: over $38.5 trillion. According to real-time data from the U.S. debt clock, as of this writing, the figure stands precisely at $38,561,900,451,378. This milestone is notable because it arrived much sooner than expected. The “Responsible Federal Budget Committee” previously predicted that the U.S. debt would reach this level around 2030. However, in the first month of 2026, this threshold was easily crossed, signaling that the U.S. fiscal trajectory has veered significantly off course.

The surge in debt did not happen overnight; its roots trace back to large-scale economic stimulus measures introduced to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. To sustain businesses, pay wages, and stabilize markets, the federal government injected enormous cash into the economy. Once such “wartime” levels of spending began, path dependency formed, and huge fiscal deficits became the norm. Market analyst James Lavish commented, “Lying, cheating, stealing, and then endlessly printing money. That’s the script of fiat currency, which will continually weaken the currency until confidence in it finally collapses.” His sharp critique reflects deep market concerns about the long-term creditworthiness of the dollar.

Today, these enormous figures seem to no longer stir public concern. Prices across the economy have risen, and zeros are not only on government ledgers but also on everyday supermarket receipts. Ironically, in 2026, the U.S. added a trillion-dollar-level “fixed expense” to its national ledger: annual interest payments on the national debt. This expense, purely servicing debt itself, is locking in an ever-expanding and uncontrollable cost in the federal budget, squeezing out investments in education, infrastructure, scientific research, and other key areas.

Key Data on U.S. National Debt

Total debt: $38.56 trillion

Per capita debt: approximately $108,000

Average daily debt increase in 2025: about $600 million

Total debt increase in 2025: approximately $2.2 trillion

2020 debt interest expense: $345 billion

Estimated 2026 debt interest expense: close to $1 trillion (about 3 times 2020)

Current M2 money supply: $22.4 trillion

Estimated annual tariff revenue (current): about $25 billion

Tariff revenue as a percentage of debt: approximately 0.065%

Genesis Day Echoes: Bitcoin Born from the Ruins of the Last Financial Crisis

As the U.S. national debt figures continue to break records, the global Bitcoin community celebrates a symbolically significant day—“Genesis Day.” On January 3, 2009, the mysterious figure Satoshi Nakamoto mined the first block of the Bitcoin network, the “Genesis Block.” Embedded in this block was a headline from The Times: “The Chancellor is on the brink of implementing the second round of bank emergency aid.” This act is widely interpreted as a declaration of Bitcoin’s original purpose: to create a peer-to-peer electronic cash system independent of traditional financial crises and bailouts.

Industry figures such as Paolo Ardoino, CEO of stablecoin issuer Tether, and Sam Callahan, Strategy & Research Director at OranjeBTC, shared “Happy Genesis Block Day” messages on social media. The headline from seventeen years ago, far from being outdated, resonates even more today due to its startling similarity to current global (especially U.S.) fiscal and monetary conditions. It was a record of the UK government’s response to the 2008 financial crisis, now ironically prophetic of the U.S. debt-driven economic model.

The embedded headline in the Genesis Block is often regarded as a symbol of Bitcoin’s core value proposition: a currency resistant to inflation and devaluation through decentralization and a fixed supply of 21 million coins. In a fiat world where unlimited printing dilutes currency value, Bitcoin’s scarcity and predictable issuance schedule form its fundamental narrative foundation. Satoshi Nakamoto encoded this distrust of traditional finance into Bitcoin’s very first data block, endowing it from inception with an alternative monetary vision.

Surging Interest and Structural Deficits: The Dual Engines of Debt Out of Control

The difficulty of the U.S. debt problem lies not only in its enormous size but also in its growth dynamics and self-reinforcing nature. In 2020, the year of the COVID-19 outbreak, U.S. federal interest payments totaled $345 billion. Just six years later, this cost is projected to approach $1 trillion—nearly tripling. The Responsible Federal Budget Committee describes this growth as “the new normal.” When debt service becomes one of the largest and fastest-growing budget items, fiscal policy enters a vicious cycle: issuing new debt to pay interest on old debt.

Although bipartisan officials frequently discuss debt reduction, actual actions often contradict these claims. For example, in 2025, President Trump signed a comprehensive plan called “A Great Big Bill,” which combined tax cuts with new spending programs, expected to cost $3.4 trillion over ten years, further fueling Washington’s borrowing appetite. White House Deputy Press Secretary Kush Desai defended this, claiming that since Trump took office, the debt-to-GDP ratio has actually decreased, and with growth policies in effect, it will continue to improve. However, many economists believe that relying solely on economic growth to absorb such massive debt is overly optimistic in a low-growth, high-interest-rate environment.

A deeper issue is the structural deficit: even in a stable economy, U.S. fiscal revenues cannot cover mandatory expenditures like Social Security, Medicare, military spending, and discretionary programs. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has said this requires an “adult conversation,” while JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon calls it “the most predictable crisis in history.” Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warns it could trigger an “economic heart attack.” These warnings are not alarmist; they reflect clear concerns about the drag and potential risks posed by massive debt once interest rates normalize.

Tariffs and “DOGE”: Frivolous Attempts at Fiscal Self-Help

Faced with the relentless tide of debt, the U.S. government has tried to increase revenue and cut waste. The Trump administration relied mainly on two tools: tariff policies and the so-called “Department of Government Efficiency” (DOGE), which has attracted online attention due to its abbreviation.

First, tariffs. The Trump administration continued and expanded tariffs on major trading partners to protect domestic industries and boost federal revenue. According to the Responsible Federal Budget Committee, tariff revenue jumped from about $7 billion in the previous fiscal year to roughly $25 billion by July last year. The White House claims these record tariff revenues are funding the federal government. However, even with this growing revenue stream, its size relative to the total debt is negligible. Cryptopolitan calculates that $25 billion is less than 0.07% of $38.5 trillion. Even if every cent of tariff revenue were used to pay down debt, it would take nearly 1,200 years to clear the existing debt.

Key Tariff Policies and Their Impact

1. Global tariffs on steel and aluminum: Early measures aimed to revive U.S. metal manufacturing. They increased import costs for related products, generating some government revenue but also raising costs for downstream industries.

2. Tariffs on broad Chinese goods: Covering hundreds of billions of dollars worth of products at varying rates, this is one of the largest sources of tariff revenue but also sparked trade disputes and debates over cost pass-through to U.S. consumers.

3. Tariffs on specific European goods (e.g., wine, luxury items): Retaliation measures against EU subsidies to Airbus, with relatively small revenue but symbolic political significance.

4. Tariffs on electric vehicles and batteries: Aimed at protecting the emerging U.S. EV industry and targeting major producers, these tariffs restrict cheap imports and may slow green transition.

5. Tariffs on solar panels and components: Intended to protect domestic solar manufacturers, but may increase costs for U.S. solar projects and delay clean energy deployment.

While these tariffs generate revenue, their economic costs are highly debated. Supporters argue they protect jobs and shift costs onto trade partners; critics contend the costs are ultimately borne by U.S. consumers and businesses, potentially fueling inflation and trade retaliation.

On the other hand, the “Department of Government Efficiency” (DOGE) aims to save funds by reducing waste and inefficiency. Its public tracker shows it has cut $202 billion from government costs, saving each taxpayer approximately $1,254.66. While significant, this saving is limited compared to the per capita debt exceeding $108,000, and thus has limited impact on overall fiscal health. It’s akin to bailing water from a sinking ship—helpful but insufficient to stop the rising tide.

Bitcoin’s Value Proposition: A Fixed Anchor in the Wave of Fiat Inflation

As the core of the fiat system—namely the dollar and U.S. fiscal policy—plunges into debt and inflation spirals, Bitcoin’s value proposition is being highlighted like never before. Bitcoin advocates point out that through its fixed supply capped at 21 million coins and its predictable issuance schedule, Bitcoin fundamentally addresses the problem of unlimited fiat inflation.

The M2 money supply, a broad measure of circulating dollars, continues to grow and has reached $22.4 trillion at the time of writing. This expansion erodes purchasing power, devaluing the currency relative to scarce goods and services. Bitcoin’s supply curve is pre-set, transparent, and immutable. Over time, its new issuance rate decreases (via the halving mechanism), ultimately stopping around 2140. This design makes Bitcoin inherently deflationary, with its purchasing power expected to increase relative to goods and services over time—completely opposite to fiat’s path.

Current macroeconomic conditions lend real-world support to this theory. As the Fed raises interest rates to combat inflation, the resulting surge in bond yields raises concerns about the long-term creditworthiness of the dollar and U.S. government finances. This skepticism is not causing capital to abandon the dollar immediately but is prompting some long-term value-seeking capital to view Bitcoin as a “hedge against fiat failure” or a store of value. Bitcoin’s price, with its volatility and new all-time highs, is driven in part by this macro narrative shifting from fringe to mainstream.

The Eternal Message of Genesis Block: From Critique to Alternative

Looking back at the headline embedded in the Genesis Block, it is more than a record of the 2008 crisis; it is a profound critique of systemic issues—the cycle of “crisis-bailout-moral hazard-larger crisis”—that afflicts centralized financial systems. Seventeen years later, as “bailouts” extend from banks to the entire economy, and from emergency loans to unlimited fiscal spending and money creation, the problems Bitcoin originally critiqued have not been solved—in fact, they have reemerged on a larger scale.

Thus, the celebration of Genesis Day is more than commemorating a technological achievement. It is an annual reaffirmation of Bitcoin’s original philosophy and mission: a currency based on mathematics and cryptography, not political promises, designed to be an alternative to the current system. Today, with U.S. debt surpassing $38.5 trillion, this message is more resonant than ever: when trust in governments and central banks is continually depleted, people turn to verifiable, code-based trust.

This contrast does not mean Bitcoin will immediately replace the dollar. The dollar system remains powerful, with the deepest network effects and status as the world’s reserve currency. Yet, Bitcoin’s existence and ongoing growth provide an unprecedented, non-sovereign option for global stores of value. It acts like a mirror, reflecting the weaknesses of fiat and prompting reflection on what money truly is—an endlessly dilutable debt instrument or a scarce store of value like digital gold. Every Genesis Day reminds us of this fundamental question.

The Evolution of Bitcoin as a Store of Value: From Geek Toy to Macro Asset

Bitcoin’s story is a chronicle of transition—from fringe to mainstream, from a “peer-to-peer electronic cash” vision to a “digital gold” store of value. Initially, it attracted cryptopunks, libertarians, and tech enthusiasts drawn to its decentralization and censorship resistance. But after several major global economic shocks and unprecedented monetary easing by central banks, its narrative has been increasingly embraced by the broader investment community.

Especially during the massive liquidity injections post-2020 pandemic, institutional investors began large-scale allocations of Bitcoin as a hedge against potential inflation and currency devaluation. Companies like MicroStrategy and Tesla incorporated Bitcoin into their balance sheets, and various Bitcoin spot ETFs gained approval in multiple countries—marking Bitcoin’s integration into traditional finance. Despite price volatility, its long-term upward trend and correlation (sometimes positive, sometimes negative, especially under market stress) have secured its role as a unique component of diversified portfolios.

Looking ahead, Bitcoin faces challenges: regulatory uncertainty, scalability issues, competition from other cryptocurrencies, and whether it can maintain its decentralization and security. Yet, its core, unchangeable monetary properties—fixed supply and decentralized network—remain its strongest defenses in the narrative of fiat crises. The rising U.S. debt is a microcosm of global fiscal health. Against this macro backdrop, the celebration of Bitcoin’s Genesis Day is not just about a protocol’s birth; it’s an ongoing experiment in monetary future, whose answers become clearer and more compelling with each round of quantitative easing and debt ceiling increase.