The US crypto bill has a 50–60% chance of passing by 2026

Main policy-driving sources in crypto indicate a 50–60% chance that the US Congress will pass comprehensive legislation on the crypto market structure in 2026. Optimism stems from ongoing bipartisan negotiations in the Senate, where the Banking Committee and Agriculture Committee are drafting separate bills to delineate authority between the SEC and CFTC, as well as clarifying that digital assets are not securities.

However, the bill still faces many significant hurdles. Bottlenecks include debates over the regulation of interest-bearing stablecoins, legal frameworks for DeFi, concerns that the SEC will retain the initial decision-making role in classifying tokens, and issues related to crypto conflicts of interest involving President Donald Trump. Additionally, a shortage of commissioners at the CFTC has caused some lawmakers to hesitate in granting more power to the agency.

Time pressure ahead of the midterm elections is seen as a key factor. If the Senate cannot amend and pass the bill early in the year, especially in January, the prospects for its approval in 2026 will significantly diminish.