Vitalik: Predicting market risks is not higher than the stock market; critics fear exaggeration

ChainCatcher News reports, according to DLnews, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin responded to concerns from the outside world about prediction markets threatening the integrity of sports events and elections. He pointed out that the improper incentives created by prediction markets have long existed in the stock market, where politicians can profit by shorting stocks and then pressing the “disaster” button. He believes that prediction markets should be compared to social media, which are more prone to spreading panic and misinformation, while prediction markets can provide useful information. Vitalik said he has often felt panic from news headlines, but calmed down after checking Polymarket prices, “experienced people know the real situation, and the probability of abnormal events occurring is only 4%.” He cited Elon Musk’s 2024 prediction that a civil war in the UK is inevitable as an example, when Polymarket users assigned only a 3% probability.