Bitcoin (BTC) frustrated traders on Christmas Eve as rangebound BTC price action contrasted with record highs in gold and silver.
Key points:
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Bitcoin plays a “waiting game” as bidders stay focused on precious metals.
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A giant options expiry event should set the scene for BTC price upside, analysis says.
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Gold coils after hitting $4,500 for the first time in history.
Bitcoin gets $100,000 post-expiry target
Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD clinging to $87,000 with the Christmas holidays around the corner.
BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
These were tipped to provide volatility of their own — especially with a record options expiry event due Friday.
“Historically, BTC has tended to experience 5 to 7% swings during the Christmas period, a pattern often linked to year-end options expiries rather than fresh fundamental catalysts,” trading company QCP Capital commented in its latest “US Color” market update.
“This Friday’s record expiry is no exception. Roughly 300k BTC option contracts, equivalent to $23.7bn, alongside 446k IBIT option contracts, are set to expire.”
Total BTC options open interest (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass
QCP noted that the expiry constituted over half of open interest on major exchange Deribit, with the “max pain” level at $95,000.
“A clearer picture of downside positioning should emerge after Friday’s options expiry, particularly whether the large December 85k Puts are rolled forward, closed out, or replaced further down the curve,” it added.
The expiry had been of interest to market participants for some time. Earlier in the month, executive David Eng described the event as “acting like a lid” on BTC price upside.
“Before expiry, Bitcoin looks weak and boring. After expiry, structure changes,” he told X followers, giving $100,000 as an initial target.
“This is a textbook setup: volatility suppressed by design, then released by the calendar.”
Bitcoin plays “waiting game” as stocks, gold rise
On shorter timeframes, patience was running thin.
**Related: **__Bitcoin’s lack of ‘crazy’ year-end price means no hard crash in Q1: Pomp
“Bitcoin currently stalls between $85-90K for multiple weeks. It’s a waiting game,” crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe summarized Tuesday.
Van de Poppe argued that stocks first needed to find a local high before capital could flow back into crypto — a theory also applied to precious metals.
BTC/USD four-hour chart with RSI data. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X
As Cointelegraph reported, gold and silver continued to enjoy price discovery through the week, with XAU/USD reaching $4,500 per ounce for the first time ever.
“The upside in silver, palladium, and platinum is a short squeeze and unsustainable,” market commentator Garrett responded to Cointelegraph coverage on X.
“Once they start to reverse, they are likely to drag gold lower as well. The capital will rotate out of precious metals and into BTC and ETH.”
XAU/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
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