Ethereum Expected to Face Pressure in 2026: Weekly Outflow of $555 Million in ETH, Altcoin Seasonal Signals Weaken

Ethereum (ETH) is facing significant phase pressure. Recent data shows that after experiencing consecutive weeks of inflows, approximately $555 million was withdrawn from Ethereum-related products last week, making it the largest outflow among digital asset funds during that period. This change has significantly cooled market expectations for “Ethereum to dominate the 2026 altcoin season.”

According to data disclosed by CoinShares, this is the first weekly net outflow for Ethereum in a month. Analysts believe that the postponement of the U.S. Clarity Act at a critical juncture is one of the important factors triggering the capital withdrawal. The flow of funds indicates that nearly all ETH outflows come from the U.S. market, suggesting that the price trend of Ethereum is highly correlated with the U.S. crypto regulatory environment.

Although Bitcoin also bears certain selling pressure, Ethereum is more sensitive to regulatory expectations due to its core position in DeFi, smart contracts, and on-chain applications. For this reason, ETH is more likely to be the target of capital reduction during times of increased uncertainty. However, from an annual perspective, Ethereum's cumulative capital inflow this year is still significantly higher than the same period last year, indicating that long-term allocation demand has not completely disappeared.

According to on-chain data, the Ethereum balance in exchanges has dropped to its lowest level since 2016, theoretically indicating an increase in long-term holding proportions and limited short-term selling pressure. However, market performance has not improved as a result. The relative strength index of ETH against Bitcoin remains negative, indicating that funds and risk preferences still clearly lean towards BTC.

From a technical perspective, the price of Ethereum is still operating below 3000 USD, with a weak short-term trend. The Bollinger Bands indicate that the price is oscillating near the middle band, and both the RSI and MACD indicators have not released any clear signals for an upward movement. If ETH cannot effectively break through the key resistance level around 3300 USD, the market is more likely to maintain a range-bound consolidation, and may even face further downside risks if sentiment deteriorates.

Overall, before the regulatory uncertainties are resolved and the relative strength significantly improves, the conditions for Ethereum to lead the alts market in the short term are still not mature, and the rhythm of the alts season in 2026 may be forced to be delayed.