Strategy's US dollar reserves increased to $2.19 billion. Can it alleviate bankruptcy and dumping Bitcoin concerns?

Strategy has recently significantly expanded its US dollar reserve fund, prompting a reassessment of its financial security in the market. The company announced an addition of approximately 748 million US dollars in cash reserves, bringing the total US dollar reserve size close to 2.2 billion US dollars. This fund was first disclosed last December, with its core purpose being to cover dividend expenses related to preferred stocks, which are an important tool used by Strategy for financing and continuously increasing its holdings in Bitcoin.

From a financial structure perspective, this reserve of US dollars is currently sufficient to cover approximately 31 months of medium-term debt expenditures. Meanwhile, out of the total debt of about 8 billion dollars, most is concentrated in maturities beyond three years, with the earliest repayment scheduled for 2028. This timing mismatch has significantly reduced market concerns about its liquidity risk in the short term. Analyst James Van Straten pointed out that the core objective of this move is to alleviate market panic over bankruptcy risk and being removed from the MSCI index.

The data from the prediction market also reflects similar expectations. Polymarket shows that the probability of Strategy being removed by MSCI in the first quarter of 2026 remains as high as 75%, but the probability of being forced to sell Bitcoin within the same time window has fallen to below 10%. This means that even in the face of structural risks at the index level, sufficient dollar reserves can still support its fulfillment of dividend and short-term debt obligations, thereby avoiding the sale of Bitcoin assets.

Another analyst, Adam Livingstone, believes that this adjustment is closely related to S&P Global's credit rating recommendation. In October 2025, S&P assigned a “B” rating to Strategy, while clearly stating that if the company improves its dollar liquidity, reduces its reliance on convertible bonds, and maintains its capital market financing ability during a Bitcoin price downturn, there is room for an upgrade in the future.

In terms of asset allocation, Strategy has raised nearly 4 billion USD in the past three weeks, and its Bitcoin holdings have increased to 671,268 coins, while simultaneously expanding its USD reserves. It is worth noting that the company has supplemented its cash position by selling part of its MSTR stock rather than disposing of Bitcoin.

However, market performance remains under pressure. Since the beginning of the year, Bitcoin has retraced its annual gains, with prices falling to about $88,000; while MSTR has seen an even more significant decline, dropping from a year-to-date high of $457 to about $164, a drop far exceeding that of Bitcoin. Overall, Strategy's expansion of dollar reserves has significantly reduced short-term liquidity and bankruptcy risk, but its stock price and index risk will continue to be influenced by the Bitcoin price cycle and changes in regulatory rules.