Bitcoin failed again at the $90,000 mark, while gold reached a historic high! What does the breakdown of the "safe-haven alliance" imply?

At the beginning of this week, Bitcoin stabilized around $88,800 as global risk sentiment warmed, while gold soared to a historical high of over $4,380 per ounce, and Asian stock markets also rose simultaneously. However, the rebound momentum could not be sustained, and Bitcoin faced strong selling pressure again at the psychological barrier of $90,000, causing its price to fall back. A more critical signal is that the short-term correlation between Bitcoin and gold has shifted from positive to negative, indicating that the market's positioning of these assets is changing—from a macro hedging tool akin to “digital gold” back to a high-volatility risk asset. This shift, combined with the backdrop of thin liquidity and leverage unwinding at the end of the year, may signal that the market is about to enter a stage of increased fluctuation.

Market Overview: Bitcoin Stabilizes Amidst the Rebound of Risk Assets

Monday's market trading presented a complex picture. Bitcoin's price found temporary balance around $88,800; this stabilization is not an isolated event but is embedded in the broader context of a marginal recovery in global market risk appetite. Most notably, gold prices, driven by geopolitical tensions and market expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, have historically surged past $4,380 per ounce for the first time, poised to achieve the strongest annual performance since 1979. The central banks' ongoing gold purchases and the inflow of funds into gold ETFs have jointly laid the foundation for this bull market.

At the same time, Asian stock markets joined the rally. The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index rose by more than 1%, led by technology stocks, thanks to the soothing effect of last weekend's rebound in U.S. stocks on global sentiment. U.S. stock index futures also rose, indicating a spread of optimism. The Japanese market is particularly in focus, as the recent interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan has pushed government bond yields to multi-year highs, and the yen has strengthened under official verbal intervention, marking a significant shift from years of ultra-loose monetary policy. Amid this “warmth” driven by gold and the stock market, the cryptocurrency market is attempting to follow suit, with Ethereum rebounding above $3,000, and mainstream altcoins like XRP, Solana, and Dogecoin also experiencing slight gains.

However, this following action appears weak and hesitant. Traders generally point out that the liquidity exhaustion caused by the year-end holiday season, along with the excessive leverage left in the market after previous extreme fluctuations, are the main factors suppressing any strong rebound. The cryptocurrency market, after experiencing a deep correction in the fourth quarter independent of the stock and commodity markets, needs time for self-repair. Although the macro backdrop has become friendly due to expectations of interest rate cuts and the safe-haven demand for gold, the structural adjustments within the market have yet to be completed, making the path to a rebound fraught with difficulties.

Key Signals: The Deeper Implications of the Negative Correlation Between Bitcoin and Gold

A recent change in the market that is worth noting is the reversal of the correlation between Bitcoin and gold assets. Data shows that on the 12-hour chart, the correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and gold has dropped to around -0.14, while at the end of November, this value was still in the positive range. The shift from positive to negative correlation is an important micro signal, indicating that the price movements of these two assets are diverging. While gold has reached new highs due to increased demand for safe-haven assets, Bitcoin has not strengthened in sync and instead has faced resistance at key levels and retreated.

This phenomenon breaks the pattern of correlation between the two for most of the time in the fourth quarter of this year. During that period, Bitcoin often mimicked gold's “safe-haven” properties, gaining buying support during rising geopolitical or economic uncertainty. The current decoupling in correlation typically occurs in two scenarios: first, traders rotate out of defensive assets like gold and reallocate to high-risk markets like Bitcoin; second, during a market correction phase, Bitcoin loses macro narrative support first, entering a consolidation phase dominated by internal supply and demand. Historical experience shows that this decoupling often signals that Bitcoin may face a surge in volatility in the short term, and the market needs time to find balance under the new pricing logic.

The temporary fading of this “digital gold” narrative prompts us to reassess the core forces driving Bitcoin prices. Data from K33 Research offers a positive perspective: the prolonged sell-off phase of long-term Bitcoin holders may be nearing its end, while institutional buyers (including corporate treasuries and ETFs) are absorbing Bitcoin at a rate that exceeds miners' output. This means that, despite a price pullback of over 30% from the October peak, solid institutional demand is building a foundation below. Therefore, the current market may be in a “transitional” period: the old macro hedging narrative has temporarily lost its effectiveness, while the new narrative of endogenous growth driven by continuous inflows from spot ETFs and institutional adoption has not yet fully taken over market sentiment.

Technical Analysis: Why is the $90,000 Resistance Unbreakable?

Bitcoin has once again failed at the $90,000 mark, marking the third clear rejection of upward momentum at this price level in the past two weeks. After briefly surging to $90,500 on December 22, the price was quickly pressured back down to the $88,000 range by sell orders, reaffirming the effectiveness of this area as a strong resistance zone. From a technical perspective, since the beginning of December, Bitcoin's price highs have been consistently declining, forming a gradually converging pattern that reflects a weakening of bullish confidence and a continuous loss of upward momentum.

The key level for the current long and short game.

Resistance above:

• Immediate Strong Resistance: The range of 90,000 to 90,500 USD. Bulls need to achieve a clear daily breakout and close above this area to reverse the current “lower high” weak structure and regain directional momentum.
• Psychological Barrier: $90,000, which has undergone multiple tests, has become an important dividing line between bulls and bears.

Support below:

• Core Support Zone: 86,000 to 87,000 USD. This range has effectively absorbed selling pressure multiple times in the past month and is the lower bound of the recent fluctuation range, which cannot be lost.
• Secondary Support/Risk Area: Around $83,000. If the $86,000 support is lost, this area will become the next liquidity target for bears.

The entangled state of the market is evident: on the one hand, macro-level expectations of interest rate cuts and the gold bull market provide indirect support; on the other hand, Bitcoin's own spot demand appears hesitant when prices rise, lacking the momentum to chase higher. This contradiction has trapped prices within a gradually narrowing range. Repeated resistance at $90,000, coupled with a decline in correlation with gold, paints a picture of the current market: it is losing some support from macro funds while failing to stimulate enough independent buying to drive a breakthrough. Before one of the key levels is effectively breached, Bitcoin is likely to maintain this range-bound oscillation pattern, and with the shift in correlation happening, volatility could expand at any time.

Market Outlook: Finding New Balance in Fluctuation Operations

In the face of the current complex situation, investors need to adjust their strategies to cope with potentially increasing fluctuations. First, it is essential to acknowledge and accept the changes in market phases. The decoupling of Bitcoin from gold means that the effectiveness of relying solely on macro news (such as economic data and central bank statements) for directional judgment is declining. Market attention will increasingly return to the on-chain data of cryptocurrencies, ETF flows, and micro indicators such as leverage in the futures market.

For short-term traders, range trading may be a more reasonable choice. Within the core oscillation range of $86,000 to $90,000, one can consider positioning when stability signals are found near support levels and reducing positions when encountering resistance levels, while strictly setting stop losses. It is especially important to note that the lack of liquidity at the end of the year can amplify price fluctuations in either direction, making position management more important than directional judgment. For long-term investors, there is no need to be overly concerned about the gains and losses of short-term levels. The underlying logic of continuous net buying by institutions has not changed, and every deep correction caused by market sentiment and leverage liquidation may become an opportunity to accumulate positions.

Looking ahead to early 2026, the direction of the market will depend on the evolution of several key factors: first, whether the inflow of funds into the US spot Bitcoin ETF can resume a strong trend; second, whether the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path will ease as the market expects; and third, whether the Bitcoin ecosystem itself (such as Layer 2 development and application innovation) can create new growth narratives. During this window of pause for the “digital gold” story, the market is patiently awaiting the arrival of the next dominant narrative. Until then, maintaining patience and staying clear-headed amidst fluctuations is the best navigation through the current fog.