Bitcoin ETF experiences a massive inflow of $457 million, early institutional accumulation signals are here

Spot Bitcoin ETF records the strongest single-day capital inflow in over a month on Wednesday, with Fidelity and BlackRock leading the charge, attracting over $500 million. Experts point out that this is an “early accumulation” under changing macroeconomic expectations, rather than a speculative frenzy at the end of a cycle.

Fidelity and BlackRock lead, Bitcoin ETF records largest single-day inflow

(Source: Farside Investors)

On December 18, the spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $457 million, marking the largest single-day inflow since November 11, indicating a renewed acceleration in institutional demand. This is also the first time such strong capital inflows have occurred after the volatility experienced in early November and December.

According to data from Farside Investors, Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) led the rally, with approximately $391 million in daily inflows, making it the fund with the highest net inflow that day. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) followed closely, with about $111 million in inflows.

Overview of major Bitcoin ETF capital flows

Top 2 daily inflows

Fidelity FBTC: Inflow of $391 million (leading)

BlackRock IBIT: Inflow of $111 million

Funds experiencing redemptions

Bitwise BITB: Outflow of approximately $8.4 million

ARK 21Shares ARKB: Outflow of approximately $37 million

Hashdex DEFI: Outflow of approximately $1.5 million

These capital inflows have pushed the cumulative net inflow of US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs to over $57 billion, with total net assets rising above $112 billion, accounting for about 6.5% of Bitcoin’s total market cap. This figure indicates that institutional funds continue to expand their share in the Bitcoin market and have become a key force influencing price movements.

It is worth noting that the last time the capital inflow into spot Bitcoin ETFs exceeded $450 million was on November 11, when the inflow was approximately $524 million. Since then, the market entered a correction phase, with inflows and outflows alternating until this Wednesday’s large-scale inflow reappeared.

Expert interpretation: early accumulation rather than end-of-cycle enthusiasm

Vincent Liu, Chief Investment Officer at Kronos Research, provides key insights into this wave of capital inflow. He states that this market revival reflects “early accumulation” rather than end-of-cycle enthusiasm.

“Bitcoin ETF capital inflows feel like early accumulation,” Liu points out. “As interest rate expectations soften, Bitcoin once again becomes a liquid trading target. Political factors influence market sentiment, but capital flows are driven by macroeconomic conditions.”

This assessment aligns closely with recent macroeconomic environment changes. On Wednesday, U.S. President Trump, in his national address celebrating the first year of his second term, announced plans to appoint a new Federal Reserve Chair who strongly supports rate cuts, and will announce his successor to Chair Powell early next year. Trump added that all known candidates favor lowering interest rates below current levels.

Generally, lower interest rates are considered favorable for risk assets like Bitcoin because:

· They reduce opportunity costs of holding non-yielding assets

· They increase market liquidity

· They promote capital flow from traditional safe-haven assets to risk assets

However, Liu also cautions investors: “The upward momentum may continue, but it is expected to be uneven. Capital flows will follow liquidity and price trends. As long as Bitcoin remains stable in macroeconomic terms, Bitcoin ETFs will still be the least resistant option.”

This suggests that although institutional capital is re-entering Bitcoin ETFs, the market may still face volatility, and investors should be prepared for an uneven upward process.

Supply pressure persists with 6.7 million Bitcoins in loss

Despite record-breaking capital inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, technical pressures remain significant. Bitcoin prices have fallen back to levels from nearly a year ago, forming a supply-dense zone between $93,000 and $120,000, continuously hindering price rebounds.

According to Glassnode data, this supply structure—heavy on the front end and light on the back end—has pushed the amount of Bitcoin currently in loss to 6.7 million coins, reaching the highest level in this cycle. This means many investors’ holdings are above their cost basis, and once prices rebound into their cost zones, there could be selling pressure to realize gains.

Glassnode reports that demand in spot and derivatives markets remains weak:

Challenges in market demand

· Spot buying is selective and short-lived

· Corporate capital flows are scattered and sporadic

· Futures positions are still aimed at risk reduction rather than confidence rebuilding

The firm predicts that until selling pressure above $95,000 is absorbed or new liquidity enters the market, Bitcoin prices may remain constrained around the structural support near $81,000.

This divergence between technical signals and capital demand offers important insights for Bitcoin ETF investors: while institutional funds are beginning to rebuild positions, the market may need time to digest supply pressures, and short-term prices could fluctuate.

From a longer-term perspective, with Bitcoin ETF net assets exceeding $112 billion—about 6.5% of Bitcoin’s total market cap—it demonstrates long-term confidence among institutional investors. Coupled with Trump’s government support for rate cuts and Vincent Liu’s observation of “early accumulation,” current capital inflows may only be the beginning of a new institutional allocation cycle.

For investors focusing on Bitcoin ETFs, the key points now are: monitor macroeconomic policy changes, especially the Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory; watch the absorption of supply in the $93,000–$120,000 dense zones; and track ongoing capital flows into major funds like Fidelity and BlackRock.