Will silver continue to rise?

Author: Ray Dalio, Source: Dalio Vision

Trade between emerging powers is completely bypassing the dollar. Meanwhile, the US fiscal situation is deteriorating. National debt has surpassed unsustainable levels, with interest payments already one of the largest items in the budget. When the cost of maintaining debt exceeds productive capacity, history tells us that this cycle is entering its late stage. At that point, investors begin to look for an escape—something real, scarce, and beyond government control. Silver is at the core of this shift. Unlike digital currencies, it cannot be created by keystrokes. Unlike fiat currency, it has no counterparty risk. Unlike bonds or stocks, its value does not depend on future promises. It is intrinsic.

The Dual Nature of Silver and the Silent Shift

What makes silver unique now is that it is both a monetary metal and an industrial metal. As technology and green energy sectors expand, demand for silver rises—not only as a hedge but as a necessity. Therefore, you see a rare convergence: macro forces driving distrust in paper assets, and structural forces driving physical demand. I call this the “Silent Shift” because these movements do not announce themselves. Central banks do not hold press conferences saying they have lost confidence in the fiat system. They act quietly, gradually adjusting reserve and trade mechanisms. Retail investors rarely notice until it’s too late. But by the time mainstream narratives catch up, smart money has already moved ahead. That’s how every major shift occurs. Think back to the late 1960s and early 1970s, when the US abandoned the gold standard. The cracks had been visible for years. For those who understand debt cycles and monetary imbalances, the signs were already clear.

Today, the same pattern is unfolding. We are witnessing the early stages of de-dollarization, which could redefine the hierarchy of global assets. The impact on silver is enormous. As confidence shifts from paper assets to real stores of value, silver’s role extends beyond its historical recognition. It becomes part of the solution to the growing distrust in the financial system. Investors who understand this are not betting on price volatility. They are positioning for a systemic revaluation of money. This is not fear. It is understanding reality. When a system built on leverage and promises begins to strain, capital naturally seeks assets with lasting value. In this context, silver is not speculative. It is rational. The silent shift toward hard assets reflects collective intuition. People sense instability before they can articulate it. That’s what is happening now. When the world finally awakens, re-pricing will not be gradual. It will be sudden, just as it always is when perception finally meets truth.

Global Debt and the Flight to Hard Assets

Liquidity is like oxygen for financial markets. When it’s abundant, you don’t notice it, but once it starts to vanish, everything begins to suffocate. What we are witnessing now is a gradual tightening of liquidity in the global system. That’s why market behavior is becoming more erratic. After years of artificially supporting growth through monetary creation and ultra-low interest rates, central banks find themselves in trouble. They built an economic machine dependent on continuous liquidity injections. When liquidity slows, the entire structure begins to tremble.

The truth is, we have reached a point: policies that once worked no longer produce the same results. Marginal returns from each new dollar printed are diminishing. The stimulus from each rate cut is less. The system has become addicted to liquidity. Like any addiction, the dose must increase to maintain stability. Central banks know this, but they also know the dangers of continuing down this path. If they print too much, they will damage currency credibility. If they stop, defaults, recessions, and asset crashes could follow. That’s their dilemma. In this environment, the illusion of stability is maintained only through confidence. Investors still believe the system can be controlled, trusting the Fed, ECB, or BOJ to steer outcomes precisely. But history shows us that once confidence begins to erode, liquidity evaporates faster than anyone expects. It’s a chain reaction. When market participants lose faith in policy effectiveness, they retreat, sell assets, hoard cash, and exit risk. That’s when violent re-pricing occurs, especially in highly leveraged markets like silver.

Most people do not realize that the silver market is one of the most manipulated and leveraged markets in the world. The paper contract trading volume representing silver is dozens of times the actual physical supply. When liquidity is ample and confidence high, the system functions well because traders roll over contracts without demanding physical delivery. But when liquidity tightens and fear rises, participants begin to demand physical metal—real silver—and that’s when the game changes. The next phase of liquidity tightening could expose how fragile the paper market really is. If a few large players demand physical settlement or refuse to roll over contracts, a squeeze could occur, forcing shorts to cover at any cost. In such an environment, silver prices could become violently volatile—not due to manipulation or speculation, but because the market suddenly realizes that the physical silver implied by the paper market is far less than the actual supply.

This is not theory. It is cyclical. Every major liquidity contraction in history has produced similar dynamics. Inflated paper claims collapse in value relative to the underlying assets. 2008 was the mortgage-backed securities crisis. 2020 was the brief plunge into negative oil futures, as paper exposure exceeded physical storage. Silver could be next. The difference this time is that it is linked to broader systemic issues—the exhaustion of monetary policy itself. When liquidity disappears, investors rediscover the meaning of scarcity. At that point, assets without counterparty risk like silver shift from being overlooked to being essential. People begin to realize that liquidity and solvency are not the same. You can own all the paper wealth in the world, but if you cannot convert it into real assets when the system is frozen, it’s worthless. Central banks may try to combat the next liquidity crisis with another round of quantitative easing, but each intervention brings us closer to no return. They create more money to prevent collapse, while simultaneously destroying confidence in money itself. That’s why the silver market is so important. It reflects not just industrial demand or investment appetite, but a system that has run out of policy tools and is increasingly desperate. When liquidity dries up and people seek trustworthy assets, silver is more than a hedge. It becomes a statement—against currency manipulation, against financial engineering, and against the belief that debt can grow forever without consequences.

The next liquidity squeeze will not only test markets. It will test confidence. Those who understand this are quietly shifting into real assets, preparing for the inevitable return to truth rather than panic.

Inflation, Interest Rates, and Silver’s Hidden Advantage

The next major shift in global wealth will not come from innovation or new industries. It will come from a large-scale rebalancing between paper wealth and real wealth. We are entering a phase where the illusion of prosperity built on financial engineering will collide with the reality of tangible value. This is what I call the “Great Wealth Rebalance.” Silver and other hard assets will be at its core. For decades, wealth creation has been disproportionately concentrated in financial assets—stocks, bonds, derivatives, and digital abstractions of value. These tools have grown not because of productivity but because of monetary expansion. When central banks lower interest rates and print money, asset prices rise, creating a sense of wealth. But that wealth is not earned. It is borrowed from the future. It depends on the continuation of policies that artificially support valuations. When that support weakens or reverses, paper wealth evaporates much faster than it was created. This cycle has played out throughout history. In late stages of empires and economic cycles, printing accelerates to sustain debt burdens and social expectations. Eventually, people realize their paper wealth no longer buys what it once did. That’s when they shift from promises to physical assets. From trust-based assets to trust-embodying assets. That’s the shift we are beginning to see.

What makes silver particularly interesting in this upcoming rebalancing is its dual identity. It is both a monetary metal and an industrial commodity. This means it has the intrinsic scarcity and store of value qualities of money, while also being a necessity for modern technology, solar energy, electronics, and medical devices. In other words, its value is not theoretical or psychological; it is rooted in physical reality. In an era dominated by leverage and algorithms, this foundation will become priceless. But a deeper issue is that most of the silver investors hold today is not in physical form. It is represented by paper contracts, ETFs, or derivatives. These tools are convenient when everything is functioning smoothly. They give investors the feeling of owning silver without physical delivery. But convenience comes with risk. During monetary stress, those paper claims will be tested. If even a small fraction of investors demand physical redemption, the imbalance between paper and physical silver will become clear, triggering a rebalancing.

Today’s financial system is like a house of mirrors. Everyone sees their wealth reflected in different pieces of paper, but the underlying material—real collateral—is far less than total claims. When confidence is high, no one questions the structure. When confidence breaks, everyone rushes for the same exit. That’s how the most violent revaluations in history happen. The upcoming silver shift is not about price speculation. It is about the realization that paper claims and real wealth are different. In this context, silver is more than a hedge. It becomes a measure of honesty in an dishonest system. It reflects the true state of monetary integrity. As capital flows from overvalued financial assets into tangible stores of value, we will see a profound shift in how wealth is defined. Owning real silver will be about more than profit. It will be about preserving purchasing power when everything is losing value to inflation. This rebalancing will not be smooth or orderly—such transitions never are. They often unfold through crises, bank failures, currency shocks, or sudden market crashes. But those crises are just symptoms of a larger correction. The world is adjusting after years of illusion to the truth.

Ultimately, it is about cycles—debt cycles, trust cycles, and wealth cycles. We are in the late stage, where financial paper has far outstripped the productive value it represents. When the system begins to demand real settlement, those holding tangible assets will not only protect their wealth—they will redefine it. The next chapter of prosperity will not belong to those with the most paper, but to those holding what paper can no longer promise—real, scarce, enduring assets. Silver will be one of those rare assets, bridging illusion and reality.

Institutional Accumulation: Signals of Smart Money

Markets rarely collapse because of what people anticipate. They collapse because of what people ignore. Market psychology is built on comfort, on believing that tomorrow will be much like today. This complacency allows people to remain confident even when danger is near. We are now in one of those moments—silver markets, and the entire monetary system it reflects, are perched on a fragile balance of confidence. The next 10 days could reveal how thin that confidence truly is. Studying history shows us that turning points always follow the same psychological sequence. First, optimism. Prices rise. People believe it’s reasonable. Then euphoria. Everyone is making money, doubts fade. Then denial. Warning signs appear. But people dismiss them. Then panic, when the illusion of control vanishes. The current setup in silver looks eerily similar to the late stages of that cycle.

Most investors are focused on noise—daily swings, short-term charts, headlines about cooling inflation, or rate peaks. But they miss the underlying market structure. Silver prices are artificially suppressed by expanding paper claims—futures, ETFs, derivatives—promising exposure without ownership. This creates a psychological comfort zone. Investors think they own silver, but in reality, they hold promises dependent on liquidity and trust. When either breaks, that paper becomes meaningless. The market psychology before a structural breakout always looks the same. Calm, confident, self-assured. Traders convince themselves that volatility is temporary. Central banks will stabilize the system; any dips will be bought. But in truth, this calm is the eye of the storm. Underlying stress indicators are rising—liquidity is thinning, physical supply chains are tightening, margin leverage is at dangerous levels. The silver market is one of the most asymmetrical setups in history. Record low inventories combined with record high paper exposure. This combination can only have one outcome—sudden revaluation.

Silver vs. Gold: The True Value Gap

When belief gives way to reality, no global catastrophe is needed to trigger it. All it takes is a catalyst—policy mistakes, geopolitical events, or even liquidity freezes in other asset classes. That’s how contagion works. Silver, as a small market but symbol of systemic importance, reacts violently when confidence shifts. If investors begin to realize that the paper silver market cannot deliver the physical metal promised, revaluation could happen faster than anyone expects. Ten days could be enough to turn complacency into panic. It’s crucial to understand that markets are not driven by facts. They are driven by perceptions of facts. Fundamentals tell you what should happen. Psychology tells you when it will happen. Currently, we are in the late psychological phase of divergence between fundamentals and reality, yet investors still cling to the stable narrative. The same pattern played out before the 2008 financial crisis, before the dot-com bubble burst in 2000, and before every major commodity revaluation in history. The signs are always there, just not widely believed.

The current moment in silver is a test of belief. Those who understand cycles do not focus on price. They focus on psychology. They know the greatest volatility comes when fear replaces complacency. And fear does not appear gradually. It erupts. The next 10 days could mark the moment when the market finally realizes that a system built on leverage, derivatives, and policy guarantees cannot deliver real value when needed. That’s when the psychology flips. Those who once dismissed silver as boring will go into frenzy. Those institutions that ignored it will scramble to secure physical supply. As history shows, by the time the crowd reacts, the opportunity has passed.

Understanding market psychology is not about predicting dates. It’s about reading behavior. Right now, behavior tells us that complacency is at its peak. When complacency peaks, opportunities begin. The next 10 days could produce more than just a price move. They could mark how quickly sentiment shifts from disbelief to despair.

In every cycle, that moment defines who preserves wealth and who watches it vanish. Smart money always moves quietly before the crowd awakens.

Market Manipulation and Price Suppression Theories

The biggest mistake investors make is believing they can predict the future. The most successful investors do not try to predict; they prepare. In a world of rising uncertainty, tightening monetary systems, and eroding trust, preparation is far more valuable than prediction. The most important thing is understanding cycles, causality, and the inevitable rhythm of economic evolution. The next 10 days could shake the silver market, but whether that shake becomes opportunity or disaster depends entirely on how well you are prepared.

When I look at silver, I do not see it as just a trade. I see it as a reflection of the bigger picture—a signal about our position within long-term debt and currency cycles. Every few decades, we reach a point where debt burdens grow faster than income. Central banks lose control of real interest rates, and the system begins to self-correct. We are now in that phase. You can feel it in market volatility, in policy desperation, and in capital quietly shifting from financial assets to hard assets. This cycle’s next phase is not about profit. It’s about preservation.

What the Next 10 Days Mean for Investors

Start by understanding reality, not what we wish it to be. The reality is that governments run structural deficits that cannot be reversed without severe social and economic consequences. The reality is that central banks are in trouble. They must choose between saving the currency or saving the economy. But they cannot do both. The reality is that once trust is lost, it does not quickly return. When people lose faith in paper promises, they turn to assets that do not rely on anyone’s solvency. That’s why silver, gold, and other tangible stores of value are rising—not out of speculation, but out of necessity.

Prepared investors recognize this pattern. They study history—currency collapses, power shifts, the collapse of over-leveraged systems. They do not ask “Will this happen?” They ask “Am I ready when it does?” This mindset separates those who thrive in uncertainty from those who are destroyed. Preparation is not emotional. It is systemic. It’s about building resilience in your portfolio and your thinking. Right now, the illusion of stability remains strong. Stocks seem resilient. Central banks seem confident. Most believe inflation is under control. But beneath the surface, fundamentals are eroding. Real yields are still negative. Global debt continues to rise. Geopolitical tensions are undermining the trade system that once held the world together. These are not random events. They are signals of an approaching turning point. In that environment, preparation means owning assets that do not depend on the smooth functioning of the financial system. Physical silver is one of them.

Prediction and positioning are different. Prediction is guessing when it will happen. Positioning is structuring your exposure so that when it does, you are not forced to react. You are aligned with the truth. The next 10 days could bring volatility, but that volatility is not fear. It is understanding. Volatility is just the market’s way of re-pricing reality. If you understand the forces behind it—debt, liquidity, confidence—you do not need to panic. You only need to stay in places of genuine value. This philosophy applies not only to silver but to every decision in a world facing transition. We cannot control the timing of the storm, but we can control whether our foundations are solid when it arrives.

In the coming years, the investors who stand out will be those who anchor their wealth in assets that cannot be printed, diluted, or defaulted on. That is the essence of preparation. We are entering a phase of shrinking margin for error. Policy mistakes will compound faster, and market reactions will be more violent. Those chasing quick profits will find themselves on the wrong side of history. But those who understand cycles, study debt mechanisms, market psychology, and the enduring value of tangible assets will not only protect themselves—they will find opportunities while others see chaos. Preparation is not fear; it is clarity. The upcoming shocks and silver will not surprise those who have studied cycles. They will only surprise those who refuse to believe it is coming. The difference is not luck. It is understanding. That kind of understanding, built on preparation rather than prediction, turns uncertainty into an advantage.

Final Reflection: Preparing for What’s Coming

This is not about prediction. It’s about preparation. Most investors chase prices. Few understand cycles. Those who study cycles see what is happening now as a mirror of every major turning point in monetary history. Debt expansion, policy desperation, loss of confidence, and finally, flight into real value. Silver is not rising because people want it. It is rising because people need it to preserve what their money can no longer preserve. If history teaches one thing, it’s that every empire, every currency, every system will eventually face its moment of reckoning. Those who recognize it early, who understand the rhythm beneath the noise, will not only survive the storm—they will emerge stronger. In the days ahead, do not focus on the ups and downs of silver in a few points. Focus on what it represents. The awakening of true value. The next 10 days could shock the market, but they should not surprise those who understand cycles. Prepare not out of fear, but because opportunity always disguises itself as fear.