XRP weakens despite ETF support, bears still in control

Ripple (XRP) remains firmly around the 1.90 USD mark — an important short-term support zone — despite the cryptocurrency market facing numerous negative pressures during Thursday’s trading session. Retail investor apathy combined with technical signals indicating continued downward momentum continue to overshadow modest inflows from spot XRP ETF funds, leaving the recovery outlook for this coin quite fragile.

In the scenario where XRP closes below the 1.90 USD threshold on the daily timeframe, the price risks entering a deeper correction, retreating to the November lows around 1.82 USD. Further down, the next notable demand zone is identified at the April lows, near 1.61 USD.

XRP ETF Capital Flows Show Stable Institutional Interest

Spot XRP ETF funds continue to maintain steady capital inflows, with approximately 8.5 million USD poured in during the trading session on December 16. Among them, Bitwise’s XRP ETF leads the flow with about 6.2 million USD, followed by Franklin Templeton’s XRPZ fund, recording nearly 2.1 million USD. According to data from SoSoValue, the total accumulated capital in XRP ETFs has reached 1.01 billion USD, while total assets under management stand at 1.16 billion USD.

Notably, since its official launch on 11/13, XRP ETFs have never recorded any outflow sessions. This indicates growing confidence and interest from institutional investors in crypto investment products based on altcoins, despite ongoing market volatility.

XRP ETF Statistics | Source: SoSoValue Meanwhile, large holders—often called “whales”—are ramping up XRP accumulation during the price correction phase. Wallets holding between 10,000 and 100,000 XRP now account for 11.92% of the total supply, up from 11.88% on 12/1 and 11.74% on 11/4. Since early February, this group’s XRP holdings have increased by 0.8%, reflecting a gradually improving risk appetite despite the uncertainties still looming over the market this year.

Accumulation trends are even more pronounced among larger wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million XRP. Their ownership share currently accounts for 16.99% of the total supply, a significant increase from 15.98% on 12/1 and 13.21% on 11/1. The XRP controlled by this group has risen by 6.39% compared to the 10.6% level in early February. If this accumulation continues, it could become a key driver supporting XRP’s price recovery and growth as macroeconomic risks gradually subside.

XRP Supply Distribution | Source: Santiment On the other hand, retail investor interest in XRP remains modest. Open interest (OI) in the derivatives market only reached 3.56 billion USD on Thursday, down from 3.71 billion USD the previous day.

Previously, open interest peaked at 10.94 billion USD on 7/22, shortly after XRP hit a new all-time high of 3.66 USD on 7/18. However, this indicator plummeted sharply after the “flash crash” on 10/10, reflecting a significant withdrawal of speculative capital.

XRP Open Contract Volume | Source: CoinGlass The decline in open interest often signals apathy or lack of confidence among retail investors, as many doubt XRP’s ability to sustain its upward trend. For the price to break out sustainably and retake the psychologically important 2.00 USD level in the short term, the market needs to see a clearer and more stable recovery in open interest.

Technical Outlook: XRP Accumulates While Key Support Holds

As of Thursday, XRP is oscillating around the 1.9 USD level, continuing to face considerable pressure from the 50, 100, and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMA), all trending downward — a clear sign that the sellers still dominate the market.

On the technical chart, the MACD indicator shows the MACD line (blue) crossing below the signal line (red), accompanied by a negative but relatively shallow histogram, indicating weakening momentum. Meanwhile, the RSI hovers around 37, suggesting the downtrend still prevails, although XRP has not yet entered oversold territory.

Daily XRP/USDT Chart | Source: TradingView In terms of price structure, the downward trendline originating from the 3.09 USD peak continues to suppress recovery efforts, with a notable resistance zone at 2.09 USD. A decisive daily close above this level could open the way for an upward move to test the 50-day EMA at 2.18 USD.

Currently, the bearish trend remains intact as XRP trades significantly below the 100-day EMA at 2.36 USD and the 200-day EMA at 2.43 USD — two critical technical resistance levels exerting pressure on any rebound attempts. Conversely, the upward trendline from the 1.45 USD zone still acts as support, with the 1.87 USD area serving as a key foothold. If this support is broken, selling pressure could intensify and prolong the decline; on the other hand, maintaining above this level would strengthen the case for XRP to revisit the broader downward trendline around 2.52 USD.