The risk of losing seats in the midterm elections for Trump may increase, with the unemployment rate during his term rising to 4.6%.

BlockBeats News, December 17th, Tuesday: U.S. non-farm payroll data shows that the unemployment rate in November has risen from 4% when President Trump took office to 4.6%. Such an increase is not a good sign, but it is not uncommon in history. According to WSJ statistics, since 1953, six U.S. presidents have experienced an increase in unemployment rate within the first ten months of their first term (Trump is actually in his second term, but it is non-consecutive), including: Eisenhower (unemployment rate from 2.9% to 3.5%), Nixon (3.4% to 3.5%), Ford (5.5% to 8.8%), Reagan (7.5% to 8.3%), George W. Bush (4.2% to 5.5%), Obama (7.8% to 9.9%). Among them, Ford succeeded Nixon after his resignation, so the data is less comparable. Of the remaining five presidents, except for George W. Bush, each president’s party lost at least 12 House seats in subsequent midterm elections. During George W. Bush’s era, due to the impact of the “9/11” attacks, the 2002 midterm elections focused on national security rather than the economy. Obama faced the biggest setback (he called it a “disaster”), losing 63 seats in 2010. Notably, before Trump’s first ten months in office, the unemployment rate actually decreased from 4.7% to 4.2%, but in the 2018 midterm elections, the Democrats still gained 41 House seats. This indicates that unemployment rate and election results are not simply correlated. (Jin10)