Barclays warns of 2026 crypto market: Without strong catalysts, trading volume may face a "downward year"

Top-tier international investment bank Barclays has released a new report, sounding an alarm for the short-term outlook of the cryptocurrency market. The report predicts that, in the absence of clear structural drivers, 2026 could become a “down year” for spot crypto trading, with trading volumes and investor enthusiasm continuing to cool. This judgment is primarily based on weak spot trading volumes, unclear regulatory catalysts, and macroeconomic fluctuations (such as potential rate hikes by the Bank of Japan) exerting multiple pressures. For mainstream centralized exchanges (CEXs) heavily reliant on retail trading commissions, like Coinbase, this undoubtedly signals severe revenue challenges, and the market may need to prepare for a “dormant period.”

Core Warning: Why Does Barclays View 2026 Crypto Market with Caution?

In its latest report, Barclays Expresses a cautious, even somewhat pessimistic, view on the cryptocurrency market in 2026. The core point of the report directly points to the lack of market momentum: spot trading volume is trending downward, and no clear catalysts are visible to reverse this trend. Analysts explicitly state that crypto markets have traditionally been driven by major events, such as the influx of funds into Bitcoin spot ETFs in March 2024 or politically favorable industry events. However, in the foreseeable future, such “sparks” that could ignite a full-scale rally seem few and far between.

This assessment is based on in-depth observation of market structure. Retail-led spot trading was the engine behind the explosive growth in exchange revenues during the last bull market, but this force is now significantly waning. The report specifically highlights retail-focused trading platforms like Coinbase, noting that their core revenue drivers are facing challenges. Without new narratives or large-scale influxes of fresh capital, the market could fall into a low-activity equilibrium, a so-called “dormant period.”

Barclays’ analysis is not baseless; it reflects a phase of rational return from market frenzy. When speculative demand weakens and structural growth driven by real utility and productivity has not yet formed at scale, declining trading volumes are an inevitable outcome. This report serves as a realistic reminder to the industry: reliance on market volatility and trading enthusiasm for growth is unsustainable, and building deep value support has become an urgent task.

Key Variables: Can Regulation and Macroeconomic Policies Become “Market Rescuers”?

Despite the bleak short-term outlook, Barclays’ report also highlights two key variables that could change the market trajectory: breakthroughs in regulatory policies and shifts in macroeconomic policies. On the regulatory front, the report emphasizes the unresolved “CLARITY Act” in the US. This legislation aims to clarify the boundaries between commodities and securities in digital assets, and to define the regulatory responsibilities of the SEC and CFTC. If passed, it would provide invaluable operational certainty for the industry and could open the door to innovative products like asset tokenization, serving as a long- and mid-term cornerstone for market growth.

Meanwhile, macroeconomic policies from the other side of the globe could cause sharp market disruptions in the short term. Analysts warn that the rate hike by the Bank of Japan scheduled for December 19 is a significant downward risk for Bitcoin. Historical data shows that following Japan’s previous three rate hikes, Bitcoin experienced declines of over 20%. The logic is that a rate hike in Japan would strengthen the yen, potentially triggering large-scale “yen carry trade” unwinding, leading to tightened global liquidity and pressure on high-risk assets.

Recent Core Risks in Cryptocurrency Market and Related Historical Data

• Barclays’ outlook for 2026 spot trading volume: trending toward “down year,” lacking catalysts for reversal
• Bitcoin declines after Japan’s rate hikes:
  • March 2024 hike: down 23%
  • July 2024 hike: down 26%
  • January 2025 hike: down 31%
• Potential downside target: if history repeats, Bitcoin could slide toward the $70,000 support level
• Key regulatory variable: US “CLARITY Act,” clarifying digital asset regulatory jurisdiction

These two variables—one long-term, one short-term—outline a complex policy environment facing the market’s future. Regulatory clarity is a “slow-acting medicine,” aimed at curing long-standing systemic regulatory issues; meanwhile, external central bank monetary policy is an “aggressive drug,” which could cause intense short-term pain. Investors looking ahead to 2026 must accord equal importance to both forces.

Industry Impact: How Will Exchanges and Market Structure Evolve?

If Barclays’ prediction materializes, it will have profound effects on the entire crypto ecosystem, foremost among them the major centralized exchanges. The report points out that platforms like Coinbase, which primarily rely on retail spot trading revenue, will face direct financial pressure. Although Coinbase is actively expanding into derivatives trading and asset tokenization, analysts believe these new businesses will be insufficient to fully offset the decline in spot trading volumes and rising operational costs by 2026. This may signal a painful period of “cost reduction and efficiency improvement” and business transformation.

Deeper still is the shift in the underlying logic of market development. Barclays remains cautious about the currently booming “asset tokenization” trend, considering it still in early stages and unlikely to significantly impact performance next year. This suggests the market may be transitioning from a phase driven by speculative narratives and traffic to one driven by real-world applications and compliance frameworks. In this process, companies that can preemptively establish barriers in compliance, institutional services, and real-world asset on-chain (RWA) areas might gain an advantage in the next cycle.

Additionally, the report mentions that the shift toward a more crypto-friendly US political environment may have been partially priced in. This means future growth will depend on tangible, implementable products, user adoption, and cash flows, rather than just policy hype. Industry competition will shift from fighting for retail trading volume to competing over compliant assets, institutional clients, and core technological capabilities.

Market Outlook: Finding the Dawn of the Next Cycle During the Dormant Period

Faced with the possibility of a “down year,” market participants should not be solely pessimistic. Historical experience shows that crypto bear markets or dormancy periods are often critical phases for laying foundations and nurturing the next wave of innovation. Barclays’ report is more like a “health check,” pointing out current weaknesses, and the healing process itself is an essential part of industry maturation.

For investors, 2026’s strategy may need to be more cautious and selective. Short-term vigilance is needed regarding macro risks like Japanese rate hikes. In the medium to long term, focus should be on substantive progress in regulation, especially legislation like the “CLARITY Act” that clarifies fundamental rules. Additionally, keeping an eye on projects and platforms that continue building during the bear market—particularly in compliance, institutional onboarding, and real-world asset linkage—could be advantageous.

For industry builders, this is a window to shift from speed-focused to quality-focused development. Whether deepening derivatives and custody services or exploring more sustainable tokenomics, the goal should be to create products and markets that can withstand both bull and bear cycles. When market noise subsides and the environment quiets, the voices of value creators will be clearer.

Overall, Barclays’ warning about the 2026 “down year” in crypto is a rational inference based on current declining trading volumes, lack of catalysts, and macro headwinds. It does not herald the end of the crypto era but signals the start of a necessary adjustment phase after a speculative frenzy. In this process, regulatory clarity and macroeconomic fluctuations will be the two main external forces influencing market sentiment, while internal structural adjustments and innovation accumulation will determine who can better迎接 the next dawn. For the market, only through such “stress tests” can it shed superficiality and move toward a deeper, more resilient new stage.