Trump names Kevin Hassett as frontrunner for "Fed Chair Race," Kevin Hassett's chances of winning drop by 30%

U.S. President Trump publicly stated during an interview that former Federal Reserve Board member Kevin Warsh is currently at the top of the list of candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair, praising Warsh and another popular candidate, Hassett, as “both Kevin are great.” This remark significantly narrows the lead of Hassett, who was previously seen by the market as a certain winner, and adds a new variable to the 2026 Federal Reserve Chair succession.

(Background recap: Trump: Rate cuts are a test for the Federal Reserve Chair, and may adjust tariffs to lower the prices of some goods)

(Additional background: Trump hints that there is “only one person left” for the Fed Chair candidate, predicting an 85% chance of Kevin Hassett’s election)

The transition of the Federal Reserve Chair will undoubtedly be one of the most closely watched events in U.S. politics in 2026. The current Chair Jerome Powell’s term will end in May 2026. President Trump has repeatedly criticized Powell for being too slow in cutting rates and is actively screening for a new Chair who better aligns with his economic policies, emphasizing that he hopes the next Chair will support rapid and substantial rate cuts to stimulate economic growth.

Previously, White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett was leading the candidate list, with markets and prediction platforms almost certain he would ultimately be nominated. However, this recent event introduces new variables.

Kevin Warsh’s Nomination Probability Rises

According to The Wall Street Journal report on the 13th, Trump, in an interview, was directly asked whether former Fed Board member Kevin Warsh is now at the top of the list for Fed Chair candidates. He clearly responded, “Yes, I think so.” Trump then mentioned the popular candidate Hassett, saying, “I think both Kevins are great.” He added that there are “several other excellent candidates,” indicating that the final decision has not yet been fully settled.

It is worth noting that this statement came after Trump met with Warsh for 45 minutes this Wednesday. Reports indicate that Warsh expressed support for further rate cuts during the meeting, which aligns closely with Trump’s consistent stance on rapid and large-scale rate reductions.

Market Predictions React Quickly

As a result, the prediction markets experienced significant fluctuations: on the Polymarket platform, Warsh’s probability of being nominated by Trump surged from about 7% to 38%, while Hassett’s probability dropped from a high of 85% to 52%; on the Kalshi platform, Warsh’s chance increased from 10% to 42%, and Hassett’s from a high of 81% to 52%.

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Source: Polymarket

Additionally, it is noteworthy that prominent Wall Street figure and JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon previously publicly supported Warsh for the next Fed Chair, calling him a “great chairman,” and believed Warsh could better maintain the independence of the Federal Reserve.

Although Hassett still leads in prediction markets by about a 10% margin, Warsh’s surge proves that the race is far from over. Trump is expected to finalize his choice within a few weeks. This contest between the “two Kevins” will set the stage for the independence of the Fed and the interest rate path in the post-Powell era, and will pose the most critical political question for 2026.

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Tags: Fed Chair Kevin Hassett Kevin Warsh Trump Federal Reserve monetary policy rate cuts market expectations