Bitcoin is approaching the 2025 Christmas holiday in a state that is both fragile and exciting. After weeks of pressure, Bitcoin’s price is currently trading around the $93,000 mark. Four key charts reflect a market in the final stages of a correction, but still lacking clear momentum for a new bullish cycle.
Data indicates three major forces are influencing the market. Recent buyers are experiencing heavy losses, while new whales are beginning to capitulate. Macro factors still dominate price movements, although spot buying activity is quietly returning.
Short-term Holders Under Severe Loss Pressure
The first chart focuses on the realized profit and loss of the short-term holder group (Short-Term Holders – STH), meaning Bitcoin coins purchased in the past few months. Their “realized price” is the average cost basis of these coins.
Realized profit and loss of short-term Bitcoin holders | Source: CryptoQuantAt the start of 2025, the STH group had impressive profits, with an average gain of 15%–20% as Bitcoin continuously rose in price. This encouraged profit-taking and created strong selling pressure near local highs.
However, the situation has now reversed. Bitcoin is trading below the realized price of the STH group, causing this group to incur approximately -10% loss. The chart turns red, indicating one of the deepest loss phases of the year.
This leads to two implications:
- At a certain point, selling pressure from this group will diminish.
- Historically, a key reversal signal occurs when the price moves above the realized price of the STH from below. This suggests that forced selling has been absorbed and new demand is taking over the market.
Until this signal appears, the market should remain cautious, prioritizing trading within the current range.
New Whales Capitulate: A Positive Sign for Recovery
The second chart tracks the realized profit and loss of whale groups, divided between “new whales” and “old whales.” New whales are large investors who have recently accumulated Bitcoin.
Realized profit of “whales” since November 2025 | Source: CryptoQuantYesterday alone, new whales recorded losses up to $386 million. The chart shows a large red column, along with several other downward columns near recent lows.
In contrast, old whales have smaller, more balanced profits and losses, and have not retreated as strongly as the new group.
This pattern is typical in the final stages of a correction. New whales tend to buy late, possibly using leverage or being caught up in market narratives. When prices move against them, they are the first to capitulate.
This capitulation benefits the market structure: Bitcoin shifts from weak large investor hands to stronger or smaller investors, helping to reduce future selling pressure from this group.
In the short term, these sell-offs can still push prices lower. However, in the medium term, they improve the quality of Bitcoin holders, making the market more resilient as panic-driven large investors withdraw.
Real Interest Rates Still Drive Trend
The third chart compares Bitcoin’s price movements with the U.S. 2-year real interest rate (has reversed). Real interest rates reflect the nominal rate minus inflation, and in 2025, this index closely moved in tandem with Bitcoin.
When real interest rates decline, the inverted chart rises and Bitcoin also increases, thanks to improved liquidity. Lower real rates make risky assets more attractive compared to safe bonds.
The 2-year real interest rate reversal aligns with Bitcoin’s chart overlaidThis summer’s end saw real rates rise again, pulling the inverted line and Bitcoin prices downward. This indicates macro factors continue to dominate the broader trend.
The Federal Reserve cutting rates doesn’t necessarily solve the core issues. The key is market expectations for future real borrowing costs. If inflation expectations fall faster than nominal rates, real rates could increase further.
For Bitcoin to initiate a sustainable bullish cycle, real financial conditions need to loosen further. Until the bond market reflects this change, Bitcoin’s recoveries will face macro hurdles.
Spot Buying Activity Returns: An Early Reversal Signal
The fourth chart tracks the CVD Taker Spot Index over 90 days on major exchanges, measuring net order flow based on price spread. This index shows whether buyers or sellers are currently dominant.
During the recent decline, the market was predominantly Taker Sell Dominant, with red columns covering the chart, indicating persistent selling pressure pushing prices down. This matches the prolonged downtrend.
However, the trend is now reversing. The index has shifted to Taker Buy Dominant with green columns reappearing, showing that active buyers are surpassing sellers on spot exchanges.
This is an early but very important change, as trend reversals often start with such micro-movements: first appearance of buying activity, followed by price stabilization, then large capital inflows.
A single day of data isn’t enough to confirm a trend, but if the green status persists, it will be evidence that genuine demand has returned, and spot markets are absorbing supply from the short-term holders and capitulating whales.
Bitcoin Price Outlook Before Christmas 2025
Summarizing the four charts above, Bitcoin is currently in the final stage of a correction, not the start of a new bullish cycle.
Short-term holders and new whales are still heavily in the red and continue to sell as prices rise. Macro real interest rates remain a risk appetite limiter.
However, some positive factors have emerged: new whale capitulation helps cleanse the holder base, and spot buying activity is returning, helping to slow the price decline.
As Christmas 2025 approaches, Bitcoin is likely to fluctuate within a narrow range, trending downward around $90,000. Sharp drops below $80,000 remain possible if real interest rates stay high.
A clear bullish reversal probably requires three aligned signals:
- Price must break above and hold above the realized price of short-term holders.
- The 2-year real interest rate needs to decrease, easing financial conditions.
- The Taker Buy Dominant status must persist, confirming strong spot demand.
Until these signals align, the market will continue to be volatile under macroeconomic influences and selling pressure from “trapped” investors. For long-term investors, this is an ideal phase to plan rather than make risky investment decisions.
