ASTER aims for a 30% increase in December: What market data reveals?

Aster has witnessed a fall of over 5% despite the community's sentiment remaining optimistic at over 75%, according to data from more than 60,000 participants on CoinMarketCap.

Although this altcoin has recovered to the 1 USD mark at the time of writing, it is still trading in a sideways market, lacking clear momentum.

The heat surrounding this Perp DEX platform has shown signs of cooling down, accurately reflecting the overall rhythm of the cryptocurrency market. However, historical patterns seem to remain valid, even as many on-chain fundamental factors are posing significant challenges.

Can ASTER increase by 30% in December?

On the 4-hour chart, ASTER has been fluctuating within a stable range for over a week, following a correction from a peak that brought the price up to 1.40 USD. This tug-of-war indicates that the altcoin is entering an accumulation phase, as the market temporarily balances between buying and selling pressure.

This coincides with the trend that the On Balance Volume indicator (OBV) demonstrated in the first week of November, when ASTER maintained a sideways level before breaking out. This time, the altcoin is targeting the price range of 1.50 USD, however, to achieve this goal, the price needs to break out of the downward trend line similar to how it escaped the previous sideways range.

Source: TradingViewA positive signal appears from the MACD indicator, as the MACD line crosses above the signal line revealing that buying pressure is returning. However, the histogram bars are still small, indicating that buyers only have a slight advantage and have not fully taken control of the market.

Although ASTER has the potential to increase by over 30%, the decline in on-chain activity and selling pressure from token unlocks may hinder this upward trend, making it challenging to reach the target price.

Weak activity but still better than Hyperliquid

According to data from CoinMarketCap, the daily trading volume of ASTER increased by 10%, outperforming Hyperliquid (HYPE). ASTER recorded $5.467 billion, compared to $4.605 billion for HYPE, demonstrating outstanding strength despite launching significantly later than its competitor.

Source: XTuy nhiên, the overall on-chain picture is less bright. DEX volume and futures contracts giảm, falling below the record level set from September to early November. Transaction fees are also under pressure, reaching only about 1.18 million USD in a day, while the total value locked (TVL) plummeted nearly 50%, from 2.48 billion USD to 1.32 billion USD.

Source: DefiLlamaAlthough these metrics show negative signs, the market remains volatile. These factors may hinder the potential 30% fall of ASTER, but they do not necessarily determine the final outcome.

Potential Selling Pressure

The cryptocurrency market is facing the risk of new selling pressure as large token unlocks are expected to occur in December. ASTER and Sui Network (SUI) are leading this trend with a total unlock value of over 86 million USD.

Specifically, about 3.89% of the market capitalization of ASTER, equivalent to 78.41 million tokens, will be released. However, more than 55% of the token amount is still locked, while the remaining 7% has not yet been determined for the unlocking time.

Source: TokenomistThis massive unlocking event could slow the anticipated price increase as selling pressure from the supply rises, prompting investors to carefully monitor market developments.

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