Bitunix Analyst: Core PCE may remain high, December Intrerest Rate battle clouds rise again

According to Mars Finance, on November 26, the latest PPI and CPI data show that the core PCE in the U.S. is expected to rise by 0.2% month-on-month in September and fall to 2.8% year-on-year, which is only a slight decrease compared to the previous month. Although energy and food costs are pushing up wholesale prices, several key items covered by the PCE may keep core inflation at recent levels, becoming the last available inflation assessment before the Fed's December meeting. The market generally believes that decision-makers will engage in intense debate between “the third rate cut” and “keeping interest rates unchanged.” Politically, Trump is fully intervening in the midterm elections 18 months in advance, strongly promoting tax cuts and urging Republican candidates to focus on the issue of “affordability” to hedge against the decline in approval ratings caused by rising living costs. His strategic layout is seen as simultaneously strengthening internal party mobilization and building a “Congressional firewall” to avoid a third impeachment. However, polls show that voters' pessimistic mood regarding the economy has not significantly improved due to the tax cut policy, leaving uncertainty about whether the Republican Party can maintain voter support before 2026. In terms of the crypto market, BTC's 4-hour structure shows that the price is currently hovering around $87,700, still caught in range consolidation in the short term. The key resistance level above is at the $89,000 line; once broken, it will open a liquidity window pointing to $90,500–$91,000. The support below focuses on the 4-hour demand zone of $84,000–$84,800; if it falls below this, it will point to $82,500. The lack of directional consensus on macro and inflation expectations has led to a short-term maintenance of liquidity purging and range oscillation patterns. Bitunix analysts' view: The dominant factors in the current market have shifted from policy direction to the rhythm of “inflation stickiness vs. economic slowdown.” The price structure shows that bulls and bears are still contesting in key liquidity areas, and investors should pay attention to the risk of increased volatility before the December policy rollout, as well as changes in risk appetite reflected by the actual strength of capital in the high-level range.