Will Bitcoin drop to zero?

Bitcoin has fallen 30% from its historical highs, and the price of gold has also retreated from a high of 4200 dollars.

According to the Financial Times, the Nasdaq index has recorded its worst weekly performance since April 2025, with technology-weighted stocks suffering particularly badly.

When Bitcoin surged to $126,000, many friends were filled with confidence, but now they are all asking: “Will Bitcoin go to zero?”

When “digital gold” collapses in sync with physical gold, and the stocks of artificial intelligence darlings collectively plummet, are we witnessing a fundamental paradigm shift or a spectacular technical correction?

Does the curtain rise on the 2025 universal fall signify a systemic deconstruction?

Various assets (, including those investment tools that usually have counter-cyclical characteristics, synchronously falling is indeed abnormal. This article will conduct an in-depth study to uncover the truth.

Core conclusion: The crash in 2025 is not only an independent narrative of Bitcoin or artificial intelligence, but essentially a liquidity-driven systemic event.

Analysis of Market Fluctuations and the Current Status of Bitcoin

Just a month ago, the CME FedWatch Tool indicated a 93.7% probability of a Federal Funds Rate cut, but it has now plummeted to 44.9%.

When investors collectively realize the misjudgment of the Federal Reserve's policy direction, they will self-correct simultaneously.

Interest rate cuts typically boost the prices of stocks, gold, and alternative assets like digital assets by lowering borrowing costs and the opportunity cost of cash; however, when expectations are not met, a brutal reversal can occur.

Just like the reality scene in 2025.

Meanwhile, the theory of an artificial intelligence bubble is rampant.

CBS news analysts point out.

“The market realizes that if companies invest huge sums of money in data center construction, it will inevitably erode profit potential.”

Data reveals a grim reality: Microsoft and Google announced that their combined AI infrastructure spending for the 2024-2025 fiscal year exceeds $250 billion, but neither clearly quantified the related earnings during their earnings call.

What is even more concerning is that enterprise software companies riding the AI wave generally have a disconnect between their promises and performance.

Palantir's price-to-earnings ratio has reached 180 times, but the customer acquisition cost has doubled year-on-year, resembling the characteristics of the internet bubble period.

McKinsey's latest report shows that only 23% of companies using generative AI have achieved quantifiable improvements in productivity, yet these companies continue to increase their investments in AI.

Although the commercial value of AI is widely discussed, its effectiveness is difficult to measure, and few companies disclose specific results.

Even the FANG (Facebook, Amazon, Nvidia, Google) camp is facing difficulties. Although Nvidia announced revenue growth, its stock price fell instead of rising, confirming that even excellent operations are hard to counteract against market inertia in the current volatile environment.

It is worth noting that “Register” disclosed that Nvidia plans to invest $100 million in OpenAI, while OpenAI plans to repurchase $100 million worth of Nvidia chips. This cyclical revenue model has also failed to boost market confidence.

The US dollar index has soared to historical highs in the past three months, causing international buyers' costs for assets such as gold and Bitcoin to surge.

The traditional safe-haven property of gold has failed, and investors have not flocked to gold and other precious metals as expected. In a strong dollar environment, gold's defensive position has collapsed, failing to provide a safe haven.

Bitcoin: Death Spiral or Growing Pains?

Currently, the correlation between Bitcoin and stocks has strengthened, the hedging property has failed, severely impacting the “digital gold” narrative.

According to data from The Block, institutional investors withdrew $9 billion from Bitcoin ETFs. When the market needs Bitcoin to demonstrate an independent trend, it instead moves in tandem with tech stocks.

In fact, gold, stocks, and long-term bonds have all performed better than Bitcoin.

However, the history of Bitcoin's development has always been accompanied by resilience, experiencing multiple deep falls and strong recoveries.

The special aspect this time is that institutional investors, pension funds, enterprises, and ETFs have jointly built a value foundation that has not existed in the past, providing a price bottom and also granting legitimacy to the system.

Currently, there is a surge in the demand for downside protection in the range of $80,000 to $85,000. The key issue is no longer whether Bitcoin can survive, but rather how it can be reborn from its current predicament.

Macroeconomic Insights for Bitcoin Investors

The 2025 crash reveals a fundamental shift in the market operation mechanism.

**The end of the era of loose monetary policy, **real value regains attention.

Investors are no longer chasing speculative narratives, but are focusing on fundamentals - this applies to AI companies, Bitcoin traders, and the entire industry.

The AI bubble theory has not shaken the beliefs of some individuals.

Robert Metcalfe once said.

“Bubble is an innovation tool that can stimulate innovations that would not have occurred otherwise.”

Sabujit Johar believes.

“The bubble is a self-healing mechanism of the system running as designed.”

But the real crux of the matter lies in the crisis of interconnectivity.

Institutional investment has triggered a new correlation between cryptocurrencies and traditional tech stocks. When the Nasdaq faced its darkest week since April 2025, Bitcoin failed to serve as a hedge and instead amplified the fall.

• In 2013, Bitcoin surged while tech stocks stagnated and gold plummeted;
• In 2018, while crypto assets were sold off, tech stocks rose;
• In 2025, gold, Bitcoin, and AI stocks experienced their first simultaneous daily pullback, which is a typical characteristic of a liquidity-driven market.

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Set the World in the Next 90 Days

In the next three months, the most direct catalyst will be the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on December 18.

If interest rate cuts are initiated, risk assets may welcome a year-end recovery market. However, it is important to pay close attention to the policy guidance in 2026, as any signals of maintaining high interest rates could trigger a new round of selling.

Bitcoin needs to pay attention to three key levels:

• 85,000 USD represents the institutional support level (main ETF fund inflow range)
• A fall below $75,000 indicates a new crisis
• Breaking 95,000 USD would confirm the continuation of the bullish market pattern.

These price levels will be tested in the next 4 to 6 weeks.

AI stocks face different timelines: the fourth quarter earnings season will be a litmus test. Companies must demonstrate strong returns on AI investments, focusing on Nvidia's guidance on data center demand and the AI revenue disclosures from the FANG camp.

If either party underperforms expectations, it may trigger an industry-wide correction.

Will Bitcoin really go to zero?

The probability of Bitcoin hitting zero is extremely low, but this crash signals a deeper transformation.

Bitcoin has transformed from a revolutionary fringe asset into an institutional participant. The current core issue is no longer a survival crisis, but an identity crisis.

How will the nature of digital assets, which should remain uncorrelated, be reconstructed when they fluctuate in sync with Nasdaq?

This identity crisis is not a temporary phenomenon.

The development path of Bitcoin in the next decade depends on fundamental choices:

Continue to act as a macro-sensitive institutional asset?** Or regain independent attributes?**

Choosing an institutional path means that Bitcoin will behave like high-beta tech stocks, driven by Federal Reserve policies and fund positions.

Choosing a decentralized path requires different catalysts, including:

• Self-custody popularization
• Layer 2 network adoption rate increases
• On-chain stablecoin liquidity growth
• Sustainable Mining Economic Model

This generation of Bitcoin holders believes in the “digital gold” narrative, while the next generation will determine whether Bitcoin will return to its revolutionary roots or willingly become an ordinary asset in a diversified portfolio.

The “era of soaring everything” has undoubtedly come to an end after 2020, and now is the moment for value to return. The market is analogous to life; when everything seems to collapse simultaneously, it often harbors the most profound transformations.

Bitcoin, reborn from chaos, may exhibit a form that is completely different from the past.

And this may not be a bad thing.