HTX DeepThink: The cooling of interest rate cut expectations and liquidity tightening suppresses the risk appetite for encryption assets.

According to Mars Finance, HTX DeepThink columnist and HTX Research researcher Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) analyzed that although the 43-day government shutdown in the United States has finally ended, a large amount of delayed economic data will be released at once. The market is concerned that this data will weaken the rationale for a rate cut in December, and several voting committee members have publicly expressed a wait-and-see attitude, leading to a rapid cooling of rate cut expectations. Under the dual pressure of reassessing the interest rate path and liquidity tightening, risk appetite has sharply declined.

Bitcoin has been in a continuous decline since the beginning of October, dropping to $95,885 during trading on November 14, with the cryptocurrency market value evaporating by over $1 trillion. High actual interest rates are another burden, with the 10-year TIPS yield rising to 1.82%; the reverse repo balance is nearly exhausted, the Treasury cash account is high, and overall liquidity is tightening.

Options data shows that investors are building defensive positions: the put contracts on Deribit with strike prices of $90,000 and $85,000 are valued at $158 million and $170 million respectively, with open interest concentrated between $100,000 and $110,000, and the maximum pain point is about $104,000, while the put/call ratio is 0.61. This layout indicates that traders are concerned about a short-term pullback while still leaving room for upside. Due to the price drop, long-term holders have sold over 810,000 Bitcoins in the past 30 days.

In the coming week, speeches from Kashkari, Williams, and other voting committee members, along with the FOMC minutes, will provide clues about the policy direction. In the short term, the cooling of interest rate cut expectations and liquidity shortages may cause Bitcoin to fluctuate between 95,000 and 100,000, with Galaxy expecting it to hover around 120,000 by the end of the year. In the medium to long term, if government spending plans, the CLARITY Act, and liquidity releases are in place, there may still be opportunities for a rebound in the crypto market; otherwise, during times of weak economic data or heightened political risks, prices may further decline. Some institutions remain optimistic about the medium to long-term trend, believing that the implementation of regulations, halving of block rewards, and institutional capital entry will drive the next bull market.