AST has confirmed the breakout but the price is flashing warnings.

The price of ASTER has increased by more than 8% today and has seen an increase of about 12% over the past week. This Token has just broken down from a falling wedge pattern, a technical signal that often indicates a bullish trend is forming.

However, despite recording an impressive increase, some warning signs have begun to appear. Two momentum divergences along with a large long position on the liquidation map suggest that the current bullish trend may not last. The question now is whether ASTER can maintain its upward momentum or will have to face a short-term correction.

Momentum is bullish, but technical divergences are warning.

The first concern arises from the RSI indicator. RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements and reflects the internal strength of a bullish trend. During the period from November 2 to November 16, the price of ASTER created lower highs while the RSI recorded higher highs, forming a hidden bearish divergence. This indicates that despite increasing buying pressure, the price is not reflecting this proportionately, often serving as an early signal of a correction.

ASTER shows RSI divergence | Source: TradingViewThe Money Flow Index (MFI), which combines price and volume to track buying pressure as the price falls, is also sending similar signals. From November 11 to November 16, the price made higher lows but the MFI formed lower lows, indicating that buying pressure as the price falls is weakening.

Buying activity as the price falls is slowing down | Source: TradingViewBoth of these divergences send a common message: the buying force is strong enough to help ASTER break the falling wedge pattern, but not strong enough to confirm a sustainable bullish trend. To completely eliminate all divergence signals and assert true strength, ASTER needs to close the daily candle above $1.28.

Large long positions increase the risk of correction

The greater risk comes from leverage factors. According to the liquidation map of ASTER-USDT on Binance, the total value of long positions at risk of liquidation is up to 25.86 million USD, while the short position is only 6.06 million USD.

This means that the long positions are far exceeding the short ones, more than four times. When the bullish trend is built on excessive long positions, a slight decline in the price of ASTER could lead to a risk of mass liquidation for these positions. When the long liquidation orders are triggered, forced selling pressure will cause the price to drop significantly.

The liquidation map leans towards long | Source: CoinglassThis factor combined with momentum divergence further increases the risk of a deep correction. If momentum weakens and the price starts to fall, ASTER may face a sharp decline due to the long side having too much dominance – this is the hidden risk behind the current bullish move.

ASTER needs to break $1.28 to confirm the bullish trend

The price chart of ASTER also clearly reflects this tension. Although it has broken down the falling wedge pattern, the bullish trend is only truly confirmed when the price surpasses the $1.28 mark. This is an important threshold that marks the transition from an unstable breakdown to a clear trend change.

If the divergence signals take effect and the price begins to adjust, the first support level that ASTER needs to maintain is $1.09. Successfully protecting this threshold will help the price only adjust slightly.

On the contrary, if it loses $1.09, the price could continue to fall to the $0.99 area – where many long positions are concentrated and susceptible to liquidation on the Binance map. As the price enters this area, selling pressure will increase significantly due to the mass liquidation of long positions.

ASTER Price Analysis | Source: TradingViewIn the event that ASTER closes above $1.28, the divergence signals will be invalidated and the price may head towards the $1.59 area, the next important resistance level on the chart.

Mr. Giáo