Ice and Fire in the Crypto World: Collapse, Stagnation, and Opportunities

2025-11-10 07:28:56

Author: Hotcoin Research

Cryptocurrency Market Performance

Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $3.46 trillion, with Bitcoin accounting for 59%, totaling $2.04 trillion. The stablecoin market cap is $305.4 billion, a decrease of 0.63% over the past 7 days. Notably, stablecoins have experienced negative growth for two consecutive weeks, with USDT representing 60.08%.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most have declined while a few have risen, including: ICP up 199.52% over 7 days, FIL up 122.46%, DASH up 59.5%, AR up 132.2%, and ZK up 100.94%.

This week, net outflows in the US Bitcoin spot ETF amounted to $1.207 billion; net outflows in the US Ethereum spot ETF totaled $5.08 million.

Market Forecast (November 10 - November 14):

The current RSI index is 59.64 (neutral zone), the Fear & Greed Index is 21 (lower than last week, in the fear zone), and the Altcoin Season Index is 39 (lower than last week).

Core ranges:

BTC: $100,000 - $107,000
ETH: $3,100 - $3,800
SOL: $152 - $186

Market Sentiment: This week, the crypto market is experiencing a “fire and ice” duality. On one hand, Trump is calling for “making the US a Bitcoin superpower” and “companies like Tether are accumulating at the bottom.” On the other hand, “ETF net outflows, stablecoin negative growth, whale sell-offs, and attacks on established DeFi projects” are occurring. This indicates a transition phase between old and new holders. Despite many negatives causing the market to be in an “extreme fear” sentiment, the indicators themselves may serve as contrarian signals, suggesting the market could be overly pessimistic and ripe for a rebound.

Close attention should be paid to institutional movements: whether the capital inflow into Bitcoin ETFs can resume, and whether Solana ETFs can maintain strong capital attraction (last week, a single-day inflow of $29 million was observed). These are key indicators of institutional confidence.

For conservative investors: remain patient, as the market direction is unclear. Maintaining sufficient cash reserves is advisable.

For active traders: follow breakout signals closely, monitor key levels next week, and employ high-probability buy low/sell high strategies within ranges, with timely stop-losses.

Current Insights

Weekly Major Events:

On November 2, according to fees.pump.fun, Pump.fun spent 7,453.81 SOL (~$1.395 million) to repurchase 303.9 million PUMP tokens. Since July 15, the platform has repurchased approximately $160.8 million worth of PUMP, reducing the circulating supply by 10.043%.
On November 3, Lookonchain reports that the funds stolen from the well-known DeFi protocol Balancer exceeded $116.6 million.
On November 3, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju stated, “KOSPI hits a new all-time high, while trading volume on Korean crypto exchanges hits a yearly low.”
On November 3, the Berachain Foundation announced that validation nodes coordinated to pause the Berachain network to execute an emergency hard fork to fix vulnerabilities related to Balancer V2 on BEX. The network pause was planned, and the network will resume shortly.
On November 4, after nearly record-long government shutdown, the US Congress showed signs of potential resolution, with Senate Republican and Democratic leaders discussing possible solutions.
On November 5, the Canadian government officially announced its regulatory plans for stablecoins, following the US approach. Issuers will be required to maintain adequate reserves and implement prudent risk management. The Bank of Canada will allocate CAD 10 million over the next two years (2026-2027) to facilitate smooth implementation, with ongoing annual costs of CAD 5 million borne by stablecoin issuers regulated under the Retail Payment Activities Act.
On November 6, during the “American Business Forum” in Miami, Florida, Trump called for the US to embrace crypto assets (virtual currencies) and expressed ambitions to lead in this field. He stated: “We want to make America a Bitcoin superpower.”
On November 7, according to DefiLlama, the market cap of USDe, issued by Ethena Labs, has fallen to $8.95 billion, down approximately 45% from its peak of around $16 billion in early October. USDe temporarily de-pegged from the dollar during the October crypto crash, dropping to $0.65 on some decentralized exchanges.
On November 7, HTX market data shows Bitcoin fell below $100,000, with a 24-hour decline of 2.8%.

Macroeconomics:

November 5: US October ADP employment increased by 42,000, versus an expected 28,000.
November 6: Bank of England maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.00%, in line with expectations, pausing the rate-cutting cycle that began in August 2024.
November 7: According to the Federal Reserve Rate Monitor, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is 62.3%.

ETFs:

Between November 3 and November 7, US Bitcoin spot ETF net outflows totaled $1.207 billion; as of November 7, Grayscale’s GBTC has experienced outflows of $24.702 billion, with holdings of $17.746 billion. BlackRock’s IBIT holds $82.587 billion. The total market cap of US Bitcoin spot ETFs is $139.642 billion.

US Ethereum spot ETF net outflows: $50,800.

Future Outlook

Upcoming Events:

Bitcoin Amsterdam 2025 will be held from November 13-14, 2025, in Amsterdam, Netherlands.
Devconnect will take place from November 17-22, 2025, in Buenos Aires, Argentina. This major blockchain event will gather key participants from the Ethereum ecosystem, featuring workshops, technical lectures, and community-led seminars to foster innovation and development.
Bitcoin MENA will be held from December 8-9 at the Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Centre (ADNEC).
Solana Breakpoint 2025 is scheduled for December 11-13 in Abu Dhabi.

Project Developments:

Jack Dorsey’s payment company Square will officially launch Bitcoin payments on November 10.
Starknet v0.14.1 upgrade will go live on the testnet on November 11 and on the mainnet on November 25.

Major Events:

November 9: China will announce October CPI year-over-year.
November 13: US will release October unadjusted CPI year-over-year (pending confirmation).
November 13: US will announce initial jobless claims for the week ending November 8 (pending confirmation).

Token Unlocks:

Linea (LINEA) will unlock 2.8 billion tokens on November 10, worth approximately $33.48 million, representing 16.44% of circulating supply.
Aptos (APT) will unlock 11.31 million tokens on November 11, valued at about $35.17 million, or 0.69% of circulating supply.
io.net (IO) will unlock 12.18 million tokens on November 11, worth approximately $3.85 million, or 5.55% of circulating supply.
Solayer (LAYER) will unlock 27.02 million tokens on November 11, valued at around $5.7 million, or 9.51% of circulating supply.
Avalanche (AVAX) will unlock 1.67 million tokens on November 13, worth about $28.19 million, or 0.33% of circulating supply.
Walletconnect Token (WCT) will unlock 124 million tokens on November 15, valued at approximately $14.03 million, or 65.21% of circulating supply.
Starknet (STRK) will unlock 126 million tokens on November 15, worth about $14.32 million, or 5.34% of circulating supply.
Arbitrum (ARB) will unlock 92.65 million tokens on November 16, valued at around $25.79 million, or 1.94% of circulating supply.

About Us

Hotcoin Research, as the core research and investment institution of Hotcoin Exchange, is dedicated to transforming professional analysis into practical tools. Through “Weekly Insights” and “In-Depth Reports,” we analyze market trends; with our exclusive column “Hot Coins Selection” (AI + expert dual screening), we identify potential assets to reduce trial-and-error costs. Each week, our researchers also engage with you via live streams to interpret hot topics and forecast trends. We believe that with warm companionship and professional guidance, more investors can navigate cycles and seize Web3 opportunities.

Risk Warning

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investing involves risks. We strongly advise investors to fully understand these risks and invest within a strict risk management framework to ensure capital safety.

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