Pump.fun (PUMP) price prediction: Breaking through the 0.005 USD resistance is key to a bull run reversal.

The native Token PUMP of the Pump.fun platform has seen a trading volume surge of 11.87% within 24 hours, with a price rise of 2.45%, and the Open Interest has also slightly increased by 2.05%, indicating a weak bullish sentiment. This rebound is attributed to Bitcoin's price breaking through the short-term resistance level of $108,000. However, the long-term technical structure of PUMP still leans bearish, and only if the price decisively breaks through the key resistance area of $0.005 and is accompanied by a sustained increase in Open Interest will the short-term bullish outlook not be fraught with risk.

PUMP Small rebound aided by Bitcoin rebound: Short-term risks still exist

As a utility Token of the Memecoin issuance platform Pump.fun, PUMP benefits from the positive sentiment in the macro market.

· Market correlation: Bitcoin price rebounded and broke through the short-term resistance level of 10.8k USD, leading to a recovery in the Altcoin market, including Memecoins. For example, Dogecoin (DOGE) rose by 3.5% in 24 hours.

· Weak bullish signal: A slight rise in the daily trading volume of PUMP and open contracts indicates that market sentiment is slightly improving.

However, traders must be aware that the long-term structure of PUMP still leans bearish. Unless the price can break through the key resistance area of 0.0052 USD, any short-term bullish outlook comes with high risk.

PUMP Price Action Interpretation: Technical Structure Leans Bearish

(Source: TradingView)

According to the 1-day chart analysis, the market structure of PUMP shows a clear bearish tendency.

· Market structure transition: When the price PUMP falls below the swing low of $0.0048 (orange line), the market structure officially turns bearish.

· Huge imbalance zone: During the structural transition last Friday, the selling pressure was extremely high, leaving a large imbalance zone on the chart (white box), which indicates a potential demand for price retracement.

· Fibonacci resistance: At the time of writing, the PUMP price is hovering below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Bulls hope to quickly turn this level into support to trigger a rise above $0.0052.

Momentum Indicators and On-Chain Data: Lack of Strong Demand Signals

Technical indicators and on-chain data confirm the current mild buying power, with bearish momentum still dominating.

· CMF close to neutral: The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) reading is +0.04, a value close to neutral indicating that buying pressure is not significant and has not formed a strong bullish momentum.

· RSI is below the midpoint: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart remains below the neutral level of 50, indicating that there is still a general downward momentum in the market.

spot demand and open contracts

· Spot demand is recovering: Since the sharp drop last Friday, the cumulative trading volume deviation (Spot CVD) has been slowly rising, highlighting that the spot demand behind the PUMP is recovering.

· Open interest remains flat: Although open interest has risen, its growth momentum has been constrained and remains stagnant over the past two days.

Essential Conditions and Risk Predictions for Short-term Bullish Outlook

For PUMP bulls, clear technical and on-chain signals are needed to confirm a bullish reversal.

· Key bullish signal: a continuous rise in Open Interest while the price breaks through the $0.005 supply zone will be an encouraging bullish signal.

· Current recommendation: Given the bearish tendency of the technical structure and the weakness of momentum indicators, a bearish or cautious outlook should still be maintained in the short term until these conditions are met.

Conclusion

Pump.fun Token PUMP has shown some recovery from the market slump, but its bullish momentum remains weak. The core technical resistance is $0.005 and the dynamics of open contracts are key to determining whether PUMP can break free from the long-term bearish structure. In the absence of strong capital inflows and technical breakthroughs, any high-risk trades targeting PUMP should be approached with caution.

Disclaimer: This article is for news information only and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investors should make cautious decisions.