The cryptocurrency market is entering a pivotal phase as the ETH/BTC pair retreats to the important support zone of 0.032–0.034. This development has ignited a lively debate among analysts about when the “altcoin season” will truly kick off.
One faction believes that only when Bitcoin breaks through its historical peak can a comprehensive price surge spread throughout the market. Conversely, many experts believe that Ethereum is capable of initiating its own new growth cycle — even without the leading role of BTC.
Bitcoin – “The Gatekeeper” for altcoin season signals?
According to analyst Benjamin Cowen, the cryptocurrency market is currently only at the “beginning” of the expansion cycle. He believes that for the altcoin season to truly kick off, two key conditions need to converge: Ethereum (ETH) must surpass the 5,000 USD threshold and hold this level as a strong support zone, while Bitcoin (BTC) must also establish a new historical peak.
Cowen explains that whenever BTC enters a record price zone, the dominance ratio of Bitcoin (BTC.D) tends to increase, reflecting a pattern that has repeated in every previous cycle. “The only way to have a true altcoin season is for BTC.D to rise first – during the period when Bitcoin hits a new peak,” he emphasized.
From another perspective, analyst AG believes that the peak of BTC.D does not necessarily coincide with the price peak of Bitcoin. Historical data shows that BTC.D typically decreases by about 30% after BTC reaches an all-time high of (ATH). If this pattern repeats, a BTC.D peak around 65% in June 2025 may have marked the peak of the current cycle.
According to Coin Photon, BTC.D has currently increased by nearly 59%, while the Altcoin Season Index has dropped below 75, indicating that altcoins are at a disadvantage and raising concerns that the altcoin season may continue to be delayed. Some experts even state that the “altcoin season” is currently taking place in publicly listed crypto stocks, rather than in traditional tokens.
Cowen still maintains that the altcoin season has not truly begun, as ETH failed in its attempt to reclaim the previous peak zone. The ALT/BTC pairs continue to weaken, while ETH/BTC seems to be forming a higher low (higher low) — a sign that an accumulation phase may be taking place. The next move of altcoin will largely depend on ETH's reaction around the 5,000 USD zone.
The price cycle of ETH in 2017 and 2021 | Source: CryptoBulletHowever, not everyone agrees with the view that Bitcoin must lead. Analyst CryptoBullet argues that in the past, ETH increased 88% in December 2017 and 79% in April 2021, right after BTC peaked — demonstrating that Ethereum can self-generate growth momentum, without relying on Bitcoin's bounce.
ETH/BTC at an important support zone
In line with a cautious perspective, analyst Ted stated that the market has not yet truly entered the altcoin season. He pointed out that the total capitalization of the altcoin group (, excluding stablecoins ), is still about 20% lower than the historical peak – a sign that Bitcoin and Ethereum need to generate more strong upward momentum before the altcoin wave can break out.
Altcoin Market Cap | Source: TedHowever, Ted still sees a few positive signals. The ETH/BTC pair is testing the important support zone 0.032–0.034 — an area that has often served as a launch pad for strong rallies in previous cycles.
Weekly ETH/BTC chart | Source: TedIn macro terms, he also noted signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed's hint at the possibility of ending the quantitative tightening program (QT) could bring a new wave of optimism for risk assets, especially the altcoin group — which is very sensitive to liquidity flows.
In contrast to Ted, the FANG analyst has shown a clear optimism. He emphasized that this is the first increase of ETH/BTC in four years, and believes that “such a setup cannot be taken lightly.” According to FANG, the 5,000 USD mark for ETH is just a matter of time.
The debate about when the altcoin season will kick off is still dividing analysts into two opposing viewpoints. Nevertheless, despite the differing perspectives, most experts agree that the ETH/BTC pair is currently hovering around the “death zone” – a place that could determine the trajectory of the entire cryptocurrency market in the coming months.
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