The impact of Trump's tax policies on the crypto market: short-term safe-haven dumping vs. long-term structural opportunities

Trump plans to impose a 200% tariff on EU alcoholic beverages, emphasizing that he will not compromise on other tariff issues, which may have far-reaching effects on the global market. The US stock market has experienced a collective slump, and the crypto market has also been affected, with Bitcoin falling below $80,000, and investor sentiment becoming cautious.

📉 Short-term impact: Market risk aversion sentiment rises, encryption market is under pressure
1. Global market risk aversion sentiment rising
• High tariffs will intensify trade tensions between the US and Europe, the global economy faces greater uncertainty, institutional funds may flow to more stable assets (such as the US dollar, gold), putting short-term pressure on high-volatility assets such as Bitcoin.
• The contagion effect of the US stock market plummeting: The crypto market still has a strong correlation with the US stock market, and the risk asset dumping in the US stock market may affect crypto assets.
2. The contraction of liquidity affects the encryption market
• If the trade war intensifies and the expectation of economic recession increases, the Federal Reserve may slow down the pace of interest rate cuts, or even maintain high interest rates to curb inflation.
• This will result in a reduction of liquidity in the market, exerting certain pressure on the inflow of funds in the encryption market in the medium and short term.
3. Bitcoin ETF outflows exacerbate market volatility
• BTC ETF has seen net outflows for 5 consecutive weeks, indicating that institutional investors are not optimistic about the short-term market.
• Tariff policies may exacerbate market panic, leading to continued outflows of funds, making it difficult for BTC to form stable support in the short term.

🚀 Long-term impact: Structural opportunities in the encryption market
4. The expectation of currency depreciation is increasing, highlighting the long-term value of BTC.
• Trade wars may lead to inflation rebound, weaken market confidence in the US dollar, while Bitcoin, as a decentralized asset, is expected to once again become the "digital gold," attracting long-term hedging funds.
• Past experience has shown that periods of global economic instability (such as the 2020 pandemic) tend to drive up the price of Bitcoin in the medium to long term.
5. Decentralized Finance (DeFi) and emerging public chains may see an influx of funds
The uncertainty of the trade war may prompt institutions and funds to seek more diversified investment portfolios, including DeFi, Layer2, and emerging public chain ecosystems.
• DeFi sectors on public chains such as Base and Solana may benefit, attracting speculative funds for short-term speculation.
6. Regulatory games will become the focus of the market
• The Trump administration may strengthen protection for traditional finance, but this may also prompt the encryption industry to seek faster development to counter the uncertainty of traditional finance.
• If the US market regulations are relaxed, it may drive more funds into the encryption market, which could be a long-term positive.

📌 Investment strategy: short-term caution and observation, long-term layout on dips
✅ Short-term strategy
• Avoid chasing highs and selling lows, wait for market stabilization signals.
• If BTC falls below $75,000, consider buying in small batches, but keep the position within **10%-20%**.
• Pay attention to the flow of ETF funds. If the outflow slows down, it may indicate that the market is about to stabilize.
✅ Long-term strategy
• Continue to DCA BTC, ETH, and grasp the overall market trend.
• Focus on opportunities in DeFi and public chain ecosystems, especially projects with rapid capital inflows (such as Base and Solana).
• If the US stock market continues to deteriorate, it may push Bitcoin to return to its safe-haven asset status, so it is advisable to make preparations in advance.

📢 Conclusion
Trump's high tariff policy exacerbates market uncertainty, causing short-term liquidity tightening and ETF dumping in the BTC and crypto market, as well as an increase in risk aversion sentiment, which may continue to fluctuate downward. However, in the long run, the trade war may lead to an enhanced expectation of the depreciation of the US dollar, thereby increasing the hedging value of BTC and also promoting the development of the DeFi, public chain, and other encryption ecosystems. Therefore, investors should remain patient, operate cautiously in the short term, and strategically position themselves in mainstream encryption assets at low levels to seize future market opportunities.

#特朗普关税影响分析