#美联储3月议息 The Fed's rate cut failed? What's next for BTC?

As the M-stock market approaches its end, there seems to be a slight calming of market sentiment. The release of core PCE data brought a "tranquilizer" to players, prompting a slight warming of the market. However, the surface calm cannot conceal deep-seated concerns, and unfavorable voices continue to linger in the market. Recently, the slow progress in negotiations between Ukraine and the United States has become a focus of attention. Although in the long run, the war will eventually come to an end, the specific timing of its conclusion and whether it can withstand the pressure of tariffs remain unknown. This uncertainty is like a hanging sword, hanging high above the market.

In addition to the geopolitical clouds, monetary policy is also a key variable in the current market. The Federal Reserve has clearly entered a period of monetary easing, there is no doubt about this. Whether it's an economic soft landing or slipping into a recession, the loose monetary environment for the next two to three years is almost certain. However, this transitional period is not smooth sailing. For players chasing altcoins or engaging in contract operations, getting through this 'difficult time' is particularly challenging. In the market, some are persistent in judging the switch between bull and bear markets, some are torn between entering or exiting, but ultimately, reducing losses and steadily gaining profits is the fundamental goal. Players who have not yet entered the market are waiting for the right time to enter, while those already in the market are struggling between gains and losses - the complexity of the market is reflected in this.

Trump's accession has injected more variables into the market. His policies often come unexpectedly, seeming to follow the rules but always finding a different path. In the short term, this style of shock far exceeds expectations, especially under high inflation pressure, as he has not proposed clear relief measures, but instead exacerbated market anxiety. The Fed's rate cuts affect the overall situation, and the market can only passively adapt to this rhythm, as the game of monetary policy continues to play out.

From the technical perspective of Bitcoin (BTC), on-chain data reveals some clues. Recently, the turnover rate has slightly decreased, and the fear of short-term players has eased somewhat, but has not completely dissipated, with a large amount of short-term funds still being withdrawn. At the same time, the holding mentality of early players remains relatively stable, with no signs of large-scale selling. The US Dollar Index has returned above 107, reflecting a cooling of market expectations for interest rate cuts, and also implying a decline in risk appetite. This adds challenges to the trend of BTC. Due to the recent significant decline, the focus may be on oversold rebound over the weekend, but the rebound height may be limited. At this stage, it is only seen as a rebound, not a reversal!