#铸造交易HMSTR PreToken，提前锁定空投收益 Weekend, consolidation at a low level. BTC once probed the 52000 level on Saturday, but pulled back to 54000, and consolidated around 54000 on Sunday morning. Pay attention to this level, it's similar to the position after the automatic Rebound of the 8/5 Long Wick Candle. In just over a month, there have been repeated tests of 55000.

Where does the support in BTC come from amidst pessimism? Is 49000 a definite bottom?
For the current market situation, I think what everyone is more concerned about is what supports are there below for the continued decline?
I looked at the situation of the MA and EMA moving averages, from the 7-day to the highest 200-day moving averages, there are basically not many effective supports below. If we look at the monthly line, the most critical support of the monthly line is at 44,000. This position can be said to be a very pessimistic position.
I looked at the market data again, and the 3-day MA120 has run to around 52,700. Currently, the most intuitive and effective support is also at this level. In addition to support, what everyone is more concerned about is whether the previous low of 49,000 in the daily candlestick is a definitive bottom, which is very important for the current trend.
If so, this decline can be stopped above 49,000, fluctuate, Rebound, then we will basically usher in a better structural stable trend. If not, 49,000 breaks, the decline expands, and there is a lack of effective major support below, then we really need to look at faith.
Personally, my expectations are not optimistic for the current situation.
1. Currently, there is no effective data or Favourable Information that can drive longsRebound or reverse the price. The mainstream narrative is interest rate cut, but the interest rate cut narrative is ineffective. A 25 basis point interest rate cut is also ineffective. Only under the premise of stable economy, a 50 basis point interest rate cut can have an economic driving effect, but it may not reverse the market.
2. In the short term, the price continues to fluctuate and decline. Although the decline has temporarily stopped, the hourly chart, including the daily and weekly moving averages, is starting to move lower, and there is no divergence. It is possible that the price will get closer to the 49,000 point.
During the sensitive period before and after the interest rate cut, especially after the cut, the market may be overly sensitive to economic data, especially bad data. In this tense atmosphere, the buffer zone of 49,000 is clearly not enough.
So, I think the market outlook for next week may not be too optimistic, unless there is a reversal of the downward trend, with a fluctuation that pumps, providing enough buffer range for 49,000. Otherwise, once the interest rate is lowered, there is a high possibility of directly breaking through the position of 49,000 with a significant fluctuation.
At present, we need to determine whether the 52,700 level of the 3-day line has become an effective support, whether it can rebound, and whether it can effectively stimulate buying volume. If the support at this position is insufficient, then it is really dangerous near 49,000. Of course, being not optimistic does not mean being pessimistic. Take one step at a time and do not stand at 50,000 and look down on 20,000. This kind of excessive bearishness is meaningless and can only consume oneself mentally.