On-chain aspects:

The chips that have been held for more than 6 months and then re-enter circulation have declined to levels seen in the late stages of the 2022–23 bear market. Both realized profits and realized losses have shrunk, and on-chain trading volume remains sluggish.

In plain terms: fewer dumpers, more buyers competing for positions.
Spot CVD (cumulative volume delta) has been steadily recovering since November and has now entered positive territory. The trading volume of buy orders at market price has begun to surpass sell orders at market price, just 1.5% away from the historic threshold at the bottom of the bear market.

In fact, after a March filled with alarming headlines about “war, inflation, and rate hike expectations,” the bears surprisingly failed to push BTC’s price down, which itself is a signal.

Supplement to Chart 2: The current 78-80k points to two important bull-bear dividing lines
- Real average price
- On-chain short-term holder average cost basis