Currently, altcoins are surging collectively. Is the altcoin season here? The truth must be seen.

Seeing that recently many altcoins are soaring, with some even multiplying several times, many people think that the altcoin season might be here. In this case, I have to pour a cold water on everyone: I have to say it—right now is still a bear market (mid-term bear market / high-level bear market), not a real altcoin season. Many people describe “a local rebound” as if it were “altcoin season.” Now it’s time to correct some people + explain it clearly. Although I’m heavily in debt, that doesn’t mean I can’t get back up!

1. First, set the tone: what kind of market is it now?

April 2026 (current): Late-to-mid period bear market / high-level bear market / recovery rebound

• BTC dropped from its historical high of $126,000 to around $60,000, with the maximum decline of about 52%

• Fear and Greed Index has been staying at 10–20 for a long time (extreme fear)

• Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) is at a high level of 58%+

• Altcoin Season Index is only 32–38

→ A true altcoin season only starts when it goes above 75

• Most altcoins are still at historical bottoms / in oversold rebounds, not in the main bull run

What you see as “altcoins surging hard” is not a bull-market altcoin season—it’s the oversold rebound rotation within a bear market.

2. Why do altcoins “seem to be surging” lately? (True reasons)

3. BTC trading sideways at high levels + oversold rebound (most core)

• BTC rebounded from $67k to over $74k, and has stabilized

• Over the past year, altcoins generally dropped 80–95%, down so far that there’s nothing left to fall

• If BTC doesn’t fall → altcoins dare to rebound (the most common structure in bear markets)

2. Local hot spots + small-capital rotation (not a full bull market)

• The ones that are rising are mainly three types:

◦ AI concept coins (TAO, RENDER, HYPE, etc.)

◦ L2 and public chain rebounds (SOL, ADA, DOT, etc.)

◦ Oversold small coins pulse (they dropped too much—once there’s even a bit of buying, they explode)

• 90% of altcoins haven’t really risen much; it’s just that the hot coins attract attention

3. Short liquidations + leverage rebound (violent in the short term)

• In the past 24 hours, liquidations totaled $660 million, and shorts account for 79%

• Altcoins have low leverage and small order books; short positions are concentrated in liquidation → leading to a surge

• This is a squeeze rebound, not a trend bull market

4. Institutions only buy BTC/ETH, not altcoins

• BTC ETFs continue to see net inflows, but the money only goes into BTC/ETH

• There are no institutional funds in altcoins—everything is retail + speculators + short-term traders

• The moment there’s any disturbance (for example, geopolitics, or a drop in US stocks), altcoins crash first

3. Bear-market rebounds vs. a real altcoin season (easy to tell at a glance)

True altcoin season (bull market)

• BTC dominance <50%, even <40%

• Altcoin index >75

• Broad-based rally: large-, mid-, and small-cap altcoins all rise together

• Lasts 1–3 months

• Funds flow out massively from BTC/ETH → into altcoins

• You can allocate heavy positions and hold them

Now (bear-market rebound)

• BTC dominance is at 58%+ high level

• Altcoin index 32–38

• Severe differentiation: a few hot coins rise, most remain flat

• Lasts days to weeks; fast rallies and fast selloffs

• It’s only rotation of existing capital and oversold repairs

• You can only take light positions for short-term trading—quick in, quick out

When will it be the true altcoin season? (Future signals)

◦ BTC holds steady at $80k → $90k then shakes again

◦ BTC dominance breaks below 50%

◦ Altcoin season index >75

◦ Fear and Greed >60 (greedy)

Right now, not a single signal is met.