#BTC / #EUR

I often look at the BTC/EUR chart because the picture is much clearer compared to USD (due to USD fluctuations).
Some expect 2026 to be a full-blown bear market year for $BTC , with prices dropping well below 60k.
I would argue otherwise.
Looking purely at the chart, we can assume that the 5-wave move to the upside ended around Trump’s inauguration in early January 2025.
After that, we can clearly see an A–B–C structure, followed by roughly a year of bear market throughout 2025.
Most people - myself included at some point - believed that the 4-year cycle would once again predict the top and the bottom. But it feels like something fundamentally changed after the ETFs.
My assumption is that the last bull phase (2023–2024) ended earlier, in early 2025, and the bear phase also finished much sooner than most expected.
This doesn’t mean we can’t move to 80–90k and then revisit the 60s by Q3–Q4 this year, but the chances of making new lows are decreasing significantly.
A weekly close above 66k EUR would confirm this scenario. #Bitcoin