Next stop, coming ashore

Recently, many fans have privately messaged me. Their short positions are trapped, and they’re feeling anxious. They ask me whether it will keep falling afterward, and whether the bull market is really about to arrive. I give a unified and clear view: don’t be fooled by short-term rebounds—there will still be further big drops afterward. The target of 66,000 remains unchanged.

The rapid plunge this morning was directly caused by the failure of the US–Iran talks. There is nothing unexpected about this. The two sides’ positions are too far apart, and it’s basically impossible for them to easily reach an agreement. When trading, you must understand the news backdrop. If you place trades against the news, you’ll only lose more and more. Yesterday, the price broke through 73,000. A large number of people chased long positions, thinking the bull market had started—only to get instantly liquidated at the top. Chasing pumps and selling dumps is a common problem among retail traders, and it’s also the kind of target that the main players love to harvest.

From the perspective of the options/position structure, there are already very few trapped lots above, and the selling pressure is extremely light. In a normal market, it would be easy to push the price higher. But this is a bear market. Every upward oscillation by the main players is to lure in longs and wash out short positions’ stop-losses. If there are no lots above, there won’t be enough room for harvesting. And since the main players can’t make money by struggling to pump it, they naturally won’t act lightly.

On the technical side, the earlier 4-hour move seems like it’s strengthening, but in fact there’s a clear MACD top divergence. When the daily chart touches the upper band, it rolls over; bullish momentum is clearly insufficient. Combined with the ongoing tense geopolitical situation and the market’s rising risk-averse sentiment, it’s very hard for risk assets to sustain a truly bullish rally.

I watch the market in real time every day, just to help everyone see the real trend clearly. In a bear market, shorting remains the most reliable choice. The next bigger wave of decline is coming soon.
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