#我的周末交易计划 There are plenty of both “bright signals” and “hidden dangers” in the market this weekend—let’s break them down one by one.

First, the big picture: BTC is currently trading at $72,976, up about +1% over the past 24 hours; ETH is at $2,245, up +2.24%. But the Fear and Greed Index is only 15 / Extreme Fear—this is a highly contradictory signal. Prices are rising, while sentiment is falling. The Bollinger Bands have narrowed to the lowest level since early 2024, meaning a period of intense volatility on the order of ±40% is building up, waiting for an ignition point.

Black swan: It could suddenly ignite over the weekend!

1 Iran war + Strait of Hormuz The most watched macro “risk catalyst.” The Iran–US ceasefire negotiations remain fragile. If the negotiations break down or the Strait of Hormuz is blocked again, global energy prices could skyrocket, and risk assets—including the crypto market—would face heavy sell pressure. Liquidity is extremely thin over the weekend, so the plunge could be even sharper.
2 World Liberty Financial liquidation risk The project under the Trump family used 500 billion WLFI tokens as collateral to borrow $75 million from Dolomite. Officially, they deny the liquidation risk, but the market often labels it “FUD,” which is often a precursor to price declines. If the WLFI price continues to fall, collateral devaluation could trigger a chain liquidation.
3 Circle stock collapses Circle fell -9.9% in a single day, and the loss over the past month has already reached -24%. Behind this is an investigation into the Drift Protocol vulnerability. When something happens to a stablecoin issuer, it often triggers concerns about USDC de-pegging. Although the probability is not high, it is a tail risk—and weekend news is harder to control.

Golden phoenix: Might quietly take off over the weekend!

1 Hong Kong stablecoin licensing lands (HSBC + Standard Chartered) The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has officially issued Hong Kong’s first batch of stablecoin licenses to Anchorpoint, led by HSBC and Standard Chartered—this is the first time traditional banking giants have obtained regulatory approval to issue stablecoins.
Favorable direction: narratives related to Hong Kong dollar stablecoins, RWA, and compliant Asia-Pacific DeFi protocols.
2 Bitcoin as a “Strait of Hormuz toll” settlement currency Under the ceasefire agreement framework, Iran plans to use BTC to collect tolls for passage through the Strait of Hormuz—this is not a meme; it is a formal report by Cointelegraph. If negotiations go smoothly, this would be a major breakthrough for BTC in sovereign-level usage scenarios, and it’s a strong positive catalyst for BTC’s price.
3 Japan will bring cryptocurrencies under financial product regulation Japan’s Cabinet has passed a bill that, for the first time, includes crypto assets in the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act. This puts pressure on short-term compliance costs, but in the medium to long term it is the infrastructure for institutions to enter the market, and it is expected to have a positive impact on Japan-related ecosystems (such as ASTR, IOTA).
4 CoinbCEO pushes for the CLARITY Act U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent and Coinbase CEO Armstrong both called, on the same day, for accelerating the passage of cryptocurrency market regulation legislation. If there is further legislative progress over the weekend, it will be one of the most important U.S. compliance positives this year.

Summary
This weekend is a highly asymmetric market. Upward catalysts (sovereign-level BTC use, Hong Kong compliance landing, U.S. legislation) are slowly building up, but the downside risks (Iran negotiations breaking down, liquidation risk, the Circle crisis) could ignite a bout of panic-driven selloff at a time when weekend liquidity is at its worst.

Suggestion: If you have positions, pay attention to your stop-loss levels—don’t increase leverage during extreme fear. If you want to set up a plan, wait until the weekend’s black swan creates a dip; after panic, the “Golden phoenix” tends to fly even higher.