#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 This is an internal analysis report on HYPE. As usual, no unnecessary chatter—let's get straight to the main points and discuss whether the current stance on this asset is correct.

1. Current Market Reflection: Middle East "Calmed Down," Money Is Coming Back

First, the market is no longer the sluggish, oscillating dog it once was. With the US and Iran confirming a two-week ceasefire, the heavy weight overhead has temporarily been lifted. Risk appetite is returning, and funds are flowing back from safe-haven assets into high-risk sectors.

As of now, HYPE is hovering around $38.5, having surged over 5% in the past 24 hours. This isn't just emotional FOMO; real money is buying—futures open interest (OI) has jumped 9%, and short positions have exploded by $4.28 million. This is akin to enemy casualties piling up on the battlefield, creating a staircase for our upward move.

2. Secret Weapon: Why Am I Not Just Looking at the K-line, but "Calculating the Accounts"?

Many analyze HYPE by just looking at breakouts and retests—that's too amateur. At this price, drawing lines is less effective than "doing the math."

Opinion: Don't treat HYPE as a shitcoin; it's more like "high-interest lending with bailout vouchers."

The blunt reason: Arthur Hayes (Mallo) tweeted yesterday that this is his only position. But what we care about isn't what he said, but his logic. Mallo, though verbose, is very precise with his calculations. He’s not interested in the small gains from HYPE but in the platform Hyperliquid's ability to print money.

Look at the data: During the most panic-stricken days, the "blue-chip" fund rate on Hyperliquid remained solid, and its HIP-4 mechanism takes 97% of fee income to buy back tokens directly. What does that mean? As long as there are gamblers on-chain, regardless of HYPE's price fluctuations, the protocol acts as a "bagholder," continuously absorbing circulating supply. The current market is a game between "miners/contributors unlocking and dumping" and "protocol buybacks."

Recently, 9.9 million tokens were unlocked. Normally, that should cause a dump, but the price remains steady. This indicates that the "bailout vouchers" (buyback funds) not only fill the gaps but also bury the shorts.

3. The Key Battlefield in the Long-Short Battle

Focus on the $38.00 - $38.80 zone.

· First support (defense line): $37.10. This is the 4-hour chart's 200-period EMA and the trendline support after the breakout. As long as this holds, the bulls remain intact.
· Strong support (bottom line): $34.45 - $34.91. This is the upper boundary of the previous downtrend channel and a previous high-volume trading zone. If it falls back here, the breakout was a false move, and the bulls can rest easy.
· Core resistance (target): $41.50 - $43.70. This is the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level and previous high. Currently, bulls are like a battering ram—$38 is the city gate, and $41.5 is the inner city.

4. Future Scenarios: Two Possible Paths and How to Respond

Short-term (next 48 hours):
Since the US and Iran are back at the negotiation table, macro conditions have given a breather. As long as Bitcoin stays above $70,000, HYPE is likely to test $41.5.
On-chain data shows that a whale called Cooker.hl bought $1.95 million worth at around $38.5. These players aren’t here for charity—they’re here to push prices up and sell. So, as long as $38 repeatedly tests this level (e.g., closing above today’s close), adding some positions is reasonable.

Medium-term warning:
Mallo’s target price of $150 is just a big dream; let’s not get carried away. The real test will be from late April to May, especially if US stocks enter recession mode again, liquidity tightens, and high-beta assets like HYPE start to fall hard. I believe this rebound is more a "selling vacuum" + "emotional recovery" double trigger rather than a true bull run.

Summary Advice

Don’t let the ups and downs sway your emotions. HYPE is now in a "hunting moment": $38 shows a slightly strong oscillation—look for low-entry opportunities; if it drops below $36.5, run faster than a rabbit.

Trading tips:
If you're a short-term trader, consider building a position around $38.4 with a stop-loss at **$36.8**, aiming for the first target of $41.5.
If you're a hodler, wait for a retracement to $34 or when volume dries up before acting. Chasing high now risks getting slapped by a rebound. $HYPE