Jerome Powell’s speech has just ended, and the market is reacting in the expected way with volatility. Let me say this clearly—it’s not the dovish tone that the bulls would have been hoping for.

Here’s what happened: the ФРС cut the rate by 0.25 percentage points, but Powell clearly made it understood that things are not that simple going forward. Bitcoin plunged below 110 000$ during the speech, and the low of the correction was recorded at 109 200$. The price is now closer to 111 000$; the dip was bought back quite well, but the mood remains cautious.

The most important takeaway from the ФРС chair’s remarks: inflation remains elevated, and this is the main stumbling block. Powell does not hide that the fight against it is still relevant. The Consumer Price Index came in slightly below expectations, but that does not mean the problem is solved. Core PCE rose by 2.8%—a figure that continues to worry monetary authorities.

The labor market is the second hot spot. Demand for labor has clearly fallen; layoffs and hiring remain at low levels. Powell emphasized that the labor market is not experiencing a rapid downturn, but the slowdown is definitely being felt. The lack of growth in unemployment benefit claims is good, but the number of open vacancies is decreasing.

But what truly strikes at the heart of crypto traders is this: Jerome Powell’s speech contained a clear message that further rate cuts in December are by no means a foregone conclusion. Among members of the ФРС, there are sharply differing views on strategy. Today’s cut was a risk-management measure, but the future is uncertain.

Powell also mentioned the impact of tariffs on prices—these lead to higher costs for goods. The baseline scenario assumes a short-term effect, but the ФРС must ensure that it does not become a persistent problem. The balance of risks has clearly shifted, and there is no risk-free path for policy.

What does this mean for us? Jerome Powell’s speech showed that the ФРС is in a difficult position—it’s not possible to address employment issues and inflation risks with a single tool at the same time. This creates uncertainty, which the market doesn’t like. Crypto will respond to every new piece of inflation and employment data much more sharply than before.

Reserves will continue to shrink, but the endpoint has not yet been determined. In December, a new phase of balancing will begin, which will be stable for some time. This means the coming months will be key for understanding the further direction of rates.

Overall impression: Jerome Powell’s speech left more questions than answers. The market remains in wait-and-see mode, and any inflation or labor-market data will strongly influence the direction of assets, including cryptocurrencies. The dump was significant, but the rebound shows that interest in Bitcoin remains.