Recently, Arthur Hayes's comments have been a hot topic, but his perspective is quite interesting. As a longtime market observer and co-founder of BitMEX, his analysis is worth paying attention to.

Hayes points out that the current Bitcoin market isn't just a simple supply and demand issue, but a liquidity problem. Indeed, looking at recent BTC movements, it's less about price decline and more about "sluggishness." He describes Bitcoin as a "liquidity warning system," which might be accurate. His observation that decreasing employment related to AI is absorbing dollar liquidity is also quite insightful.

Arthur Hayes himself has stated that if he only had $1 to invest right now, he wouldn't buy Bitcoin at this moment. The reason is clear: instability in the Middle East could pressure the entire market. Based on his past observations, conflicts in the Middle East often lead to an expansion of central bank liquidity. In other words, he's waiting for a signal on how the Federal Reserve will respond.

An interesting point is that he warns about timing the market. Since most people follow the same media reports, he suggests that it's easy to misread the situation. His advice for those without professional trading environments is to avoid leverage and short-term positions, which is practical.

Arthur Hayes's stance is clear: he describes himself as a "long-term holder of Bitcoin and other coins" from a structural perspective. He believes that since Bitcoin's inception in 2009, the demand for borderless money has become much stronger. In other words, he's bullish in the long term but watching for short-term corrections.

Currently, BTC is trading around $66,620, but he also suggests the possibility of dropping to $60,000. Meanwhile, other analysts see last week's resilience against geopolitical noise as a bullish signal, making an $80,000 rise more likely. Market opinions are divided, but insights from experienced market participants like Arthur Hayes can be valuable for making informed judgments.