April 2 Market Overview: Trump's "Withdraw from Iran in 2-3 Weeks" speech ignites Q2 kickoff, the world awaits that sentence at 9 PM tonight

By: Deep Tide TechFlow

US stocks: Continue to rebound

At the start of Q2, it’s the second consecutive day of gains.

The Dow rose 224 points (+0.48%) to close at 46,565. The S&P 500 rose 0.72% to 6,575. The Nasdaq rose 1.16% to 21,840. Russell 2000 small caps rose 0.64% to 2,512. The VIX fear index fell further to 24.54, shrinking by nearly 6 points in total versus last week’s peak.

The underlying logic behind this rally is no longer just “ceasefire news.” It’s that Trump has, for the first time, provided a specific timeline.

At a White House press conference, he told reporters that U.S. troops will leave Iran in “two to three weeks.” The key phrasing is that he added, “regardless of whether there is an agreement.” It’s the first time since the 35-day war that Washington has delinked troop withdrawal from the negotiating-and-reaching-agreement condition variable and turned it into a standalone, time-driven commitment. What the market hears is: this war is entering a countdown—whether Tehran signs or not.

Meanwhile, Trump also posted another message on Truth Social, claiming that “Iran’s president has requested a ceasefire,” but immediately added the premise: Hormuz must be “open, free, and accessible,” otherwise the United States will not consider it. With these two posts coexisting, the day’s market sentiment centers on the core tension—expectations of a final outcome, but also conditional anchoring.

Sector rotation: Winners and losers swapped positions

The most unusual scene from yesterday happened in the energy sector. The S&P 500 Energy sector plunged more than 4% in a single day, becoming the biggest laggard of the entire day—that’s a clear signal for the first time since the war that “ceasefire expectations” have been used to sell off energy stocks. The logic closes like this: war ends → Hormuz reopens → oil supply rises → oil prices fall → earnings pressure for energy companies. WTI fell 2.4% yesterday to about $99 per barrel, officially breaking below the $100 psychological level; Brent also slid back to about $101.

Tech stocks took over as the leader. Intel was the most attention-grabbing individual stock yesterday: the company announced a $14.2 billion share repurchase of the main equity in Ireland’s Fab 34 wafer fab—an industry-interpreted signal of a “CPU revival” and a return to financial discipline, with the stock price surging as a result. The Nasdaq as a whole maintained strength for a second straight day, and tech ETF (XLK) continued to benefit under the “rate-cut narrative revival” logic as ceasefire expectations improved.

Two surprise posts: SpaceX and OpenAI

Yesterday also brought two major pieces of news unrelated to the war, worth noting separately.

Bloomberg was first to report that SpaceX has secretly filed IPO documents with the U.S. SEC. This is one of the IPOs most anticipated by crypto and tech markets in years. Specific valuation and issuance timing have not been disclosed yet. EchoStar holds about 3% equity in SpaceX, and after the news broke, the stock clearly jumped.

OpenAI announced it has completed $122 billion in fundraising, with its valuation rising to $852 billion—above the previously guided figures. This round is the largest single-tech-company financing amount in history, and the funds will continue to be injected into AI infrastructure buildout. At the same time, Oracle announced layoffs of several thousand people. In contrast, when you look at these two messages together, the money for AI is still pouring in at a frenzy—but it has already entered the stage of “the giants eat more, and other companies can’t get in.”

Oil prices and gold

Oil prices: Break below $100, but don’t rush to celebrate

WTI closed yesterday at about $99 per barrel, and Brent at about $101. This marks the first time since the outbreak of the war that WTI closed below the $100 whole-dollar level. On the surface, this is a major psychological breakthrough—the market has begun pricing in the expectation that “the war will end within a few weeks” ahead of time.

But there’s a detail worth recording: oil prices have never truly returned to pre-war levels. Before the war broke out (late February), WTI was about $57. Even if it falls to $99 now, it’s still roughly 74% higher than the pre-war level. Even if a ceasefire agreement lands in the next two weeks, the oil market’s supply recovery will still take time: damaged Middle East infrastructure needs repairs; renewed operator confidence needs time; and shipping routes around the Cape of Good Hope are still operating, with cancellations still taking time. The head of the International Energy Agency, Birol, warned yesterday that even if a ceasefire comes, “full normalization” of energy markets “may take months.”

Gold: Inflation expectations fade and relieve pressure on gold, but the structural rebound is just beginning

Gold surged yesterday by 2.25% to about $4,783 per ounce—the strongest single-day gain this month.

The logic is straightforward: oil prices fall → inflation expectations cool → pressure for Fed rate hikes eases → expectations for real interest rates move lower → gold’s appeal as a non-yielding asset rises. This chain mirrors exactly the chain that has been suppressing gold throughout March—only the direction is reversed.

In terms of price levels, gold has rebounded more than 15% from the corrective low in mid-March (about $4,100), but it’s still about 15% away from the historical high at the end of January of $5,600. This space is gold’s most core operating range as the war-ending expectations are gradually realized over the next phase.

Cryptocurrency

According to CoinGecko data, Bitcoin rose modestly with the broader market yesterday, fluctuating in the $67,800 to $68,500 range—moving in sync with broader sentiment but with restraint in magnitude.

Yesterday’s real protagonist in the crypto space was a warning unexpectedly tied to the war narrative: Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement, listing 18 U.S. tech giants—including Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, and Alphabet—as “lawful strike targets,” on the grounds that they provide technical support for U.S.-Israeli military actions.

The crypto implication of this message is that if tech infrastructure becomes a target, the potential risk of disruption to computing-power supply chains and global cloud services increases—while the decentralized nature of the Bitcoin network finds a new “meaning of existence” precisely within this narrative framework. This logic has not yet been fully reflected in prices, but it’s worth placing in a long-term observation lens.

Morgan Stanley quietly launched a low-fee Bitcoin ETF yesterday, with fees clearly below the market average. This is another signal that Wall Street’s traditional asset-management giants are continuing to “come closer” to Bitcoin. During this window when the market waits for the war’s outcome, product positioning on the institutional side has been quietly progressing.

Today’s focus: Aftershocks in the market following Trump’s speech; countdown to April 6

Last night at 9 p.m., Trump delivered a nationwide televised address from the White House

In the evening address, Trump announced that Iran’s president Pezeshkian has formally applied to the United States for a ceasefire—an Iranian diplomatic posture that is, so far, the closest it has come to direct contact. The content of the speech is being digested by the market; today’s trading tape will be the first window to price in the speech’s message.

There are three key points: first, whether Trump provides a new conditional framework; second, whether Iran’s IRGC issues a rebuttal statement; third, whether there is any change in the actual passage status through the Strait of Hormuz.

Today’s data calendar

Today (April 2) is relatively heavy with economic data: ISM Manufacturing PMI (March), and ADP private-sector employment report (March). These two releases, combined with the nonfarm payrolls (March) scheduled for Friday, will together outline the true severity of the labor market under war shock in the U.S.

Net nonfarm payroll job losses of 92,000 in February were among the worst single-month data since the pandemic. Whether March data can rebound is a key signal for determining the Fed’s policy path—also an important link in pinning down how much “cost” this war will ultimately impose on the U.S. economy.

April 6 deadline: The final window

The deadline Trump set for strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure is April 6, four days from now. No matter what the speech content is, this date will become the main axis of market volatility over the next four days.

The current situation is this: there are new public signals from ceasefire negotiations, but Hormuz still has not been able to transit normally, and the IRGC continues to project a confrontational posture outward. This war is standing at a real crossroads, and neither direction is simply good news or bad news. It’s just that for the market, the cost in one direction will be far less than in the other.