Sigh, it's so difficult to do, I lost a lot... Usually, rising crude oil prices put downward pressure on Bitcoin, but the relationship isn't simply "both rise or fall together." Instead, it's transmitted through a clear macroeconomic chain.

🔗 The Transmission Chain: Oil Prices Affecting Bitcoin

Oil prices don't directly "withdraw" funds from Bitcoin, but they influence the macroeconomic environment, which in turn affects all risk assets, including Bitcoin:

1. Rising oil prices → Inflation expectations rise: Crude oil is the lifeblood of industry; high prices increase transportation, production, and living costs, directly leading to higher inflation expectations.
2. Inflation expectations rise → Interest rates stay high: To curb inflation, the Federal Reserve and other central banks are forced to keep interest rates elevated or delay rate cuts. A high-interest-rate environment means liquidity in the market tightens.
3. Tight liquidity → Risk assets come under pressure: Bitcoin and tech stocks are generally viewed as highly sensitive to liquidity. When liquidity tightens, funds flow out of these assets. Data shows that during periods of soaring oil prices, Bitcoin's correlation with the Nasdaq 100 index reached as high as 85.4%.

📉 Specific Forecast: How Will Bitcoin React if Oil Prices Stay Above $100?

According to a recent analysis report published by Forbes, based on different oil price trends, Bitcoin faces two main downside scenarios:

Oil Price Scenario | Impact on Bitcoin Price | Trigger Conditions
---|---|---
Scenario 1: Mild | A decline of about 15%-25% from the current around $70,000, dropping to the $50,000–$58,000 range. | Oil prices remain above $100 per barrel for the long term.
Scenario 2: Severe | Further fall to the $40,000–$45,000 range, implying over 40% downside from current levels. | Escalation of Iran conflicts, pushing oil prices to $130–$140 per barrel.

🧐 Why is oil prices rising now but Bitcoin isn't falling?

Your observation is very sharp. Recently, oil prices surged past $100 due to geopolitical conflicts, but Bitcoin remains above $70,000. This is mainly due to several short-term special factors:

1. Massive intervention power: The IEA (International Energy Agency) announced coordinated releases of 400 million barrels from emergency reserves—one of the largest joint releases in history—effectively suppressing irrational oil price surges.
2. Market leverage has been cleared: Open interest in derivatives markets has fallen from over $40 billion to about $21.8 billion, and funding rates are near neutral or slightly negative. This significantly reduces the risk of forced liquidations ("margin calls") triggered by oil shocks.
3. Long-term funds are accumulating: On-chain data shows that Bitcoin reserves on exchanges are decreasing, with some indicators pointing to "whales" or long-term holders accumulating at current prices, providing resilience to the price.

💡 Conclusion

So, the current market is in a special state: oil prices are like a sword hanging over Bitcoin's head, but the reserves and leverage unwinding by the IEA temporarily act as a "sword sheath."

For you, the key isn't to guess the next move up or down, but to understand this chain: keep an eye on oil prices, the US dollar index, and Federal Reserve rate cut expectations. As long as oil prices stay above $100, Bitcoin's medium-term macro pressure won't disappear. Today’s IEA reserve release news might cool short-term oil prices, but if geopolitical conflicts persist, supply-side risks still exist.