2026-03-26

Today, Bitcoin almost declined without resistance, with a slow and steady decline that will eventually turn into an accelerated drop. Even if there is positive news delaying the decline due to geopolitical conflicts after hours, the marginal effect of such "good news" is continuously diminishing and cannot fundamentally support the market.

Accelerated decline directly brings a core risk: a full bearish alignment of moving averages.
From the 4-hour chart, all three sets of BTC moving averages are above the current price, and the future trading range is also above the current price, indicating that the three moving averages will continue to accelerate downward, with only one last step remaining: the EMA60 and EMA120 death cross.
Once a full bearish alignment forms, it will either take a long time to reverse like in the 2022 bear market or require external forceful capital/policies of the level seen in 2025 to forcibly reverse the trend.

Currently, BTC has fallen to around 68,500, and there is no strong buy-side resistance during the session. I have repeatedly mentioned before that the prolonged sideways consolidation makes the 68,000 level unlikely to hold the decline, and today’s movement fully confirms this.

Here are two scenarios to give a preemptive warning:

First scenario (reversal trend)

BTC has broken below the previous key support level (around 69,000 in the chart).
(A) If it quickly rebounds around 68,000 and reclaims above 69,000, it will form a standard bottom-breaking reversal pattern;
(B) If it further rebounds and stabilizes above 71,000, it can completely avoid the full bearish alignment of moving averages.
Only after completing steps A and B does the market’s weakness fully reverse, showing a strong reversal intention. At this point, it is safe to turn bullish.
In terms of operation, only going long after BTC stabilizes above 71,000 is safe; around 68,000 is definitely not suitable for bottom-fishing or chasing longs.

Second scenario (continuation of the decline)

If the decline cannot be stopped around 68,000 and continues downward, the market will enter an "extreme human nature" panic sell-off phase.
Subsequently, you can gradually increase positions in batches between 65,000 and 63,000. This wave of decline to around 63,000 will definitely trigger a strong technical rebound, but the height will be limited.