BlackRock hopes that the crypto ETF can generate $500 million in revenue. Is this achievable?

Written by: Blockchain Knight

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink told shareholders that digital assets, private markets, and other businesses could contribute $500 million in revenue within five years. However, the rapid growth of its crypto ETFs has made this target seem too conservative.

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) is the company’s highest-earning ETF among thousands globally. Its speed in surpassing $100 billion in assets is five times that of traditional ETFs and is the fastest-growing among the 20 largest ETFs in the U.S., despite being the youngest.

After Trump’s victory in 2024, Bitcoin surged to a record high of $126,000. Although prices later retreated, IBIT’s total return dropped 18.82%, but the fee structure remained unaffected.

Fund registration data shows IBIT generated $47.5 million in 2024 and $174.6 million in 2025. During the same period, ETHA contributed $19.3 million. The two funds accumulated net fee income of $241.4 million over the first two years.

Adding the newly launched ETHB in March, BlackRock’s crypto ETF portfolio now totals about $61.6 billion, with annualized fee income of approximately $15.6 million.

At a 0.25% fee rate, crypto ETFs need to reach a $200 billion scale to achieve the $500 million annual revenue goal. Currently, there is a shortfall of $138.4 billion.

Relying solely on price increases to fill this gap is unlikely. Standard Chartered predicts Bitcoin will reach $100,000 and Ethereum $4,000 by the end of 2026. Without new capital, the portfolio size would be about $91.8 billion; even if Bernstein is bullish and Bitcoin hits $150,000, there would still be a $68.9 billion shortfall.

Capital inflows are the key driver to close this gap. Data shows that three crypto ETFs have net inflows of about $34 billion annually, which could help reach the target within four years at this growth rate.

In terms of cumulative revenue, BlackRock’s crypto ETFs could break $500 million by mid-2027. If assets grow by 40-50%, this milestone could be reached as early as early 2027. Even with a 30% asset decline, the goal could still be achieved by late 2027 or early 2028. Only a long-term halving of assets would significantly delay the timeline.

Comparing horizontally, the largest U.S. gold ETF, GLD, earns about $604 million annually in fees. BlackRock’s crypto ETFs would need to reach 132% of GLD’s size to generate $500 million in annual fees.

From the company’s overall revenue perspective, $500 million accounts for only 2.1% of BlackRock’s total revenue and 2.6% of fee income. While not a core business, it helps solidify the position of crypto ETFs within BlackRock’s business ecosystem.

Therefore, Fink’s five-year goal does not rely solely on token prices or capital inflows. The key depends on whether the crypto ETF portfolio can ultimately surpass $200 billion in assets, which also indicates whether the crypto market can be adopted by more investors.