Personal Perspective: Where Is the Crypto Market in the Bear Cycle?

Looking back at the entire development from late 2025 to now, the market can be divided into quite clear phases – and this helps me understand the big picture rather than get caught up in short-term fluctuations.

1. The First Major Drop – The Initial Shock Starting from October 2025, Bitcoin entered its first sharp decline. Prices plummeted rapidly from high levels to deep lows, lasting about over a month. This was the market “awakening” phase, when optimism was replaced by panic.
2. Technical Recovery Phase – Rest and Rebound After the sharp fall, the market experienced a relatively good rebound. But this was not a sign of trend reversal, just a recovery within a downtrend. Prices bounced up then moved sideways, creating a temporary accumulation zone.
3. The Second Major Drop – Resistance and Reversal Pressure In early 2026, the market continued with another deep decline. This time faster, with a stronger amplitude, indicating significant selling pressure. This phase often causes many investors to lose patience.
4. The Current Sideways Phase – Accumulation or Preparing to Drop? Since February 2026, the market has mainly fluctuated within a wide range but without a clear trend. Prices constantly go up and down, creating a “disturbing” feeling for both buyers and sellers. An interesting rule in technical analysis is: The longer the sideways movement → the stronger the subsequent volatility The deeper the decline → the longer the accumulation period needed Therefore, from a personal perspective, the current sideways zone may not have lasted long enough to trigger another sharp drop immediately. Conclusion: What Phase Are We In? I lean towards the scenario that the market is in the middle to late stage of a bear market. No longer the panic crash at the start But also not enough to confirm a long-term bottom Reasonable strategies at this point: Prioritize risk management Limit the use of high leverage Be patient and wait for a clearer structure This phase of the market is not for rushing. Those who maintain discipline and stable psychology will often be the ones who “survive” when the new cycle begins.