March 18 Market Overview: Awaiting Fed Decision, US Stocks Rally Moderately, Bitcoin Surges Toward $76,000

Author: Deep Tide TechFlow

U.S. Stocks: The Last “Buy the Dip” Before Powell

On Tuesday, U.S. stocks continued their rebound from the previous trading day. The S&P 500 rose 0.25% to 6,716.09 points, the Nasdaq increased 0.47% to 22,479.53 points, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 46.85 points (0.1%) to 46,993.26 points.

This is the final market “bet” before the Federal Reserve’s rate decision—CME FedWatch data shows a more than 92% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% on Wednesday.

But holding rates steady has never been the main point. The real critical moment is at 2 p.m. Eastern Time on March 18 (2 a.m. Beijing Time on March 19), when the Fed releases its policy statement, followed by a press conference with Powell 30 minutes later. Markets will reprice before 3 p.m.

Airline stocks lead the rally: “Contrarian moves” amid oil nightmare.

The S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary sector rose 1% that day, led by Expedia Group and Booking Holdings. Delta and American Airlines issued strong revenue guidance, boosting airline stocks. This is an extremely unusual signal—oil prices rebounded on Tuesday, with Brent crude up 3%, firmly above $100.

Oil prices soaring should have battered airline stocks, but Delta and American Airlines told the market during earnings calls that demand from corporate and leisure travelers is accelerating, fully offsetting the rising fuel costs.

Is the airline industry truly gaining new pricing power, or is the market just putting on a last “show of strength” before the Fed decision? We’ll find out on Wednesday.

Tech stocks see a mild rebound, but cracks are emerging.

Chip stocks contributed most of the gains in the tech sector, but software stocks are experiencing a systemic collapse driven by “AI doomsday” fears. Trade Desk plunged about 7% on Tuesday after Publicis Groupe announced it would no longer recommend this ad tech company’s demand-side platform, citing audits revealing “multiple violations of main service agreements.”

The collapse logic for software stocks is simple: AI either steals their clients or their pricing power. Trade Desk is just the first domino.

Historical pattern: Bitcoin has an 87.5% chance of declining after an FOMC meeting.

In 2025, Bitcoin fell after 7 out of 8 FOMC meetings. Even during rate cuts, Bitcoin still declined. In January 2026, when the Fed kept rates steady as expected, Bitcoin dropped from $90,400 to $83,383 within 48 hours.

The mechanism is straightforward: when the Fed announces its decision, traders have already positioned themselves. A 92% probability means “no surprises.” The announcement becomes a profit-taking window for early buyers and a trigger for forced liquidations of over-leveraged longs.

Oil prices: back in the “three-digit” club as war enters its 18th day

On Tuesday, oil prices rebounded, with Brent crude up 3%, staying above $100. The trading range for Brent futures was $100.75–$103.21.

The Iran-U.S. conflict has entered its 17th day with no end in sight. Over the weekend, the U.S. struck military facilities on Kharg Island—almost all Iranian oil exports come from there. Meanwhile, Iran launched new attacks in the Persian Gulf, disrupting key UAE oil infrastructure and causing flights at Dubai Airport to be canceled.

Monday’s “false pullback”: oil tankers safely pass through the Strait of Hormuz, market cheer.

Oil prices plummeted sharply on Monday, with WTI dropping $5.21 (-5.28%), as markets bet that tankers could soon pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Over the weekend, several tankers safely crossed, sparking hopes that the strait might reopen soon. India is trying to let six more ships pass, while other countries are negotiating with Iran through back channels to ensure safe passage.

But Tuesday’s rebound proved that the market no longer believes in the fairy tale of a “reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.”

Cryptocurrency: Powell’s “Schrödinger’s Cat”

On Tuesday (March 17), the global crypto market cap reached $2.65 trillion, up 3.6% in 24 hours, with a total trading volume of $154 billion. Bitcoin’s market share was 56.9%, Ethereum accounted for 10.7%.

Bitcoin hit $75,925, up 4.58% in 24 hours, with a trading volume of $57.58 billion and a market cap of $1.51 trillion. Ethereum traded at $2,363.22, up 8.45%, with a volume of $40.2 billion.

But these numbers will be meaningless after 2:30 p.m. Eastern Time on March 18.

Three scenarios, three fates.

Hawkish stance (dot plot shows zero rate cuts in 2026): Bitcoin could drop 8-12% within a week, potentially retesting the $65,000 support level. Altcoins could fall even more.

Neutral stance (dot plot shows one rate cut, cautious language): Bitcoin might experience a typical “buy the rumor, sell the news” decline of 3-5% within 48 hours after the announcement, then recover.

Dovish stance (dot plot shifts to two rate cuts in 2026): This is the bullish dream scenario, but less likely than the baseline.

Bitcoin’s market share is currently close to 59%. Historically, when it exceeds 60%, it indicates capital concentration in Bitcoin, and altcoin rotation has not yet truly begun. A dovish Fed signal could be the catalyst for this rotation, leading to a decline in market share and disproportionate rises in altcoin prices.

Fear and Greed Index: 28 (Fear). Market sentiment improved from extreme fear (23) on March 16 to fear (28) on March 17, indicating short-term panic easing and growing investor confidence.

But the question is: can this confidence withstand Powell’s press conference?

U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETF, Fund Flows Are the True “Vote”

Farside Investors’ ETF fund flow data will provide the clearest picture of institutional reactions on March 18 and 19. If, within 24 hours after Powell’s press conference, daily outflows exceed $200 million, it indicates institutions are reducing risk amid macro uncertainties. If inflows continue beyond $300 million, it suggests dovish signals are prevailing.

Today’s Summary: March 18 is not the end, but the beginning

Tuesday’s market was like a defendant holding their breath, awaiting judgment. U.S. stocks rose modestly, oil prices returned to three digits, and cryptocurrencies rebounded strongly—but all these are just “ceremonial moves” before Powell’s press conference.

At 2 p.m. ET on March 18, the Fed will announce its monetary policy decision. At 2:30 p.m., Powell will hold a press conference. For crypto markets, the stakes are far more than a routine central bank announcement. The next moves of the dollar, bond yields, and risk appetite will be decided within minutes.

Technically, the rate decision remains central. But in practice, markets mainly focus on what Powell says afterward. The Fed will not only release its monetary stance but also economic forecasts. This is where investors look for signals on inflation, growth, and the possible timing of rate cuts in 2026.

Lesson from history: Bitcoin declined after 7 of 8 FOMC meetings in 2025, including those with actual rate cuts.

What the market needs to answer on March 18 is not “What will the Fed do” (that’s already set), but “How will Powell define ‘the next’”:

Is it cautious, saying “We need more data; it’s too early to assess Iran’s impact”?

Or vague, “Inflation risks and growth uncertainties coexist; we are observing and waiting”?

Or some unexpected hawkish or dovish signal that could completely rewrite expectations for the second half of 2026?

The answer will be revealed at 2:30 a.m. Beijing Time on March 19. Until then, all moves are just “Schrödinger’s Cat”—both dead and alive, waiting for the observer to open the box.